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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
623 am EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

low pressure is well east of the region this morning as we await
the passage of the upper level trough. As this trough passes it
will allow much cooler air to spill into the area. A clipper type
storm system will move across the the region Sunday evening into
Sunday night. High pressure will increase its influence on the
area Tuesday into Wednesday.


Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
still some jet energy to round the base of the upper level trough.
Until this occurs the trough will not move very fast at all. Had
to pull the shower/rain chances further west since trough
struggling to drift eastward. Drier air will continue to undercut
the upper trough through the morning which will help to erode
showers from west to east.

Previous discussion...
low pressure is well east of the region this morning as we await
the passage of the upper level trough. Until the 7h trough passes
there will continue to be showers and areas of drizzle. Have
continued the high pops for much of the region and only slowly
decrease them from west to east through the day. Additional
rainfall today will likely be less than a quarter of an inch.

Since the cold front is east of the area it will be cooler than
yesterday. Highs will only be in the 50s.


Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday night/...
the upper level trough should be east of the region at some point
this evening which will allow the cooler air to spill across the
warm waters of Lake Erie. This should lead to a period of lake
effect showers that will ramp up through midnight. The best
instability and moisture to work with will occur very early
Saturday morning into the afternoon. 850 mb temperatures will dip
to -2c to -4c by sunrise Saturday morning. This may be just cold
enough to keep a mention of snow in the forecast for the hilltops.

Warm advection will increase by Saturday evening with the lake
effect showers ending. Will then await the arrival of a clipper
storm system that will impact the area late Sunday. Best chances
of showers with it will be across extreme NE Ohio into northwest PA. There
should be another round of lake effect showers in its wake. Cant
rule out a mix of snow again Monday morning but the airmass is
slightly warmer. So with that said we did not mention that
potential in the forecast. High pressure will slowly increase its
influence into Monday night with lake effect showers ending after

Saturday will be a cool day with highs ranging from the mid 40s
across northwest PA to the mid 50s across Northwest Ohio where sunshine is
anticipated. Warmer on Sunday ahead of the clipper with highs
upper 50s to middle 60s. Colder again on Monday with highs upper
40s northwest PA to the upper 50s west.


Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
surface high pressure will be in place come Tuesday...but we will
still be cool as we transition between the departing New England
trough and brief low amplitude ridging. A fairly well agreed upon
compact shortwave and its associated surface low is progged to track
west-east across the Central Plains and across the Great Lakes
between Tuesday night and Thursday morning. Will maintain the chance
of showers we had going in the forecast centered on Wednesday night
and Thursday. Temperatures through the long term will remain at or
below normal. The coolest day of the week appears to be
Tuesday...thereafter we begin to slowly moderate.


Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
widespread low MVFR and IFR across the terminals for the remainder
of the night and into Friday morning. Improvement will be slow and
will take place first at tol/fdy. Most places will remain non-VFR
through 06z Sat. Rain showers will linger for a good portion of
the day today across eastern Ohio/NW PA. Northerly winds will gust
upwards of 25 to 30 knots through evening.

Outlook...northeast Ohio/northwest PA will have non VFR possible
through Sunday morning and again late Sunday night into Monday.


extended period of Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue for
the lake through at least Sunday morning. Western extent may be able
to be trimmed early...but we will see. Stiff north winds will back
to the northwest tonight and remain elevated through the weekend.
Winds will come around to the southwest Sunday afternoon as high
pressure passes south of the lake...but this will be short lived as
the next cold front crosses the lake Sunday night. Therefore Small
Craft Advisory conditions may very well continue through Monday for
the central and eastern portions of the lake. High pressure Tuesday
finally calms the lake.


Cle watches/warnings/advisories...
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for lez143>149.


near term...Mullen
short term...Mullen
long term...oudeman

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