Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kchs 191752
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1252 PM EST sun Feb 19 2017
high pressure will then extend across the region through the week
before a cold front likely moves through Saturday. Cooler high
pressure should then return for the end of the weekend.
Near term /through tonight/...
this afternoon: deep-layered high pressure will build over the
southeast behind a mid/upper lvl trough of low pressure
departing over the western Atlantic. The setup will favor dry
conditions and above normal temps as a west/northwest downsloping
wind persists across the region and a large ridge of high pressure
expands over the south central United States. In general, temps
should peak in the low to mid 70s under mostly sunny skies.
Tonight, sfc high pressure is expected to shift over the mid and
southern Appalachians. Light north-northwest winds should continue through the
late night hours, possibly becoming calm during the pre dawn. Sky
will remain clear through the night. Low temperatures should range
from the upper 40s across the inland counties to the low to mid 50s
near the coast.
Short term /Monday through Wednesday/...
high pressure will build in behind departing low pressure Sunday
with dry conditions lasting through at least Monday night before a
weak coastal trough possibly yields some light showers
Tuesday/Tuesday night, mainly across Georgia. By Wednesday, deeper
moisture and some shortwave energy should produce a bit more
coverage of showers. Temperatures look to be well above normal
through the period, mainly 70s during the day and 50s at night.
Long term /Wednesday night through Saturday/...
Atlantic high pressure will generally prevail until a cold front
likely moves through Saturday or Saturday night. An upper trough
combined with a surface coastal trough should lead to some showers
Wednesday. Then more showers, and possibly some weak thunderstorms,
are expected Thursday/Friday given the onshore flow/sea breeze and
increased instability. A cold front will then approach Friday night,
possibly pushing through as early as Saturday morning, and
additional showers/storms are possible. Cooler/drier high pressure
should then return for the end of the weekend. Temperatures will be
above normal through the period, possibly meeting/exceeding record
levels mid to late week away from the coast.
Aviation /18z Sunday through Friday/...
VFR conditions will prevail at both chs and sav terminals through
Extended aviation outlook: mainly brief/light restrictions
possible toward the middle of the week as low-level moisture
this afternoon and tonight: winds/seas will remain well below Small
Craft Advisory levels as a mid/upper lvl trough of low pressure
exits over the western Atlantic and is replaced by deep-layered
high pressure. West/northwest winds will prevail, remaining at
or below 10-15 kt. Wind speeds should be highest near the coast
this afternoon, then in offshore Georgia waters late tonight. Seas
will peak near 2 ft.
Monday through friday: no significant concerns through the period as
high pressure dominates the area from the north and east.