Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kchs 241438
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1038 am EDT Fri Mar 24 2017
high pressure will prevail this weekend. A weak cold front should
stall over the area during the middle of next week, then shift
back north as a warm front late in the week.
Near term /through tonight/...
today: sfc high pressure centered to the north/northeast will slide
further off the mid-Atlantic coast while a low pressure system
advances east over the central United States. Aloft, a high
amplitude ridge of high pressure will extend across the southeast,
dominating the weather pattern with dry and warm conditions under
mostly sunny skies. In general, temps will peak in the mid/upper 70s
this afternoon away from the coast. An afternoon seabreeze and
onshore wind should keep temps in the mid/upper 60s along the coast.
Tonight: high clouds well ahead of a cold front will increase across
eastern Georgia and SC. Southeast winds should weaken to 5 kts by the late night
hours. Min temps should favor the low 50s inland to the upper 50s
near the beaches.
Short term /Saturday through Monday/...
Atlantic high pressure will persist through the period, although
will generally weaken with time over the local area. Some shortwave
energy will shift through on Sunday on the southeast periphery of
deep low pressure over the Midwest with additional energy
approaching Monday ahead of a secondary upper trough. This pattern
will lead to warmer than normal temperatures, likely hitting the
lower 80s inland Sunday/Monday. Some showers and thunderstorms are
expected, mainly Sunday/Monday when instability will be a bit
greater. No significant rainfall and/or severe weather anticipated
at this time however.
Long term /Monday night through Thursday/...
a weakening cold front looks to approach the area mid week before
stalling and eventually shifting back northward as a warm front late
in the period. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected, mainly
Mon night into Tuesday and again Friday as a shortwave energy moves
through the area. No significant rainfall and/or severe weather
anticipated at this time however.
Aviation /15z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions are expected at both chs and sav terminals through
12z Saturday. Northeast winds will veer to southeast late morning,
remaining at or below 10 kt.
Extended aviation outlook: low risk of restrictions, mainly
early next week due to mainly early morning low clouds/fog and
today and tonight: winds/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels for most waters as a weak coastal trough persists along the
southern extent of high pressure centered to the north/northeast.
However, a Small Craft Advisory will continue in offshore Georgia
waters for lingering 6 ft seas. In general, northeast winds of 10-15
kt this morning will veer to the southeast this afternoon while high
pressure to the north/northeast shifts further offshore. Seas will
be no higher than 3-4 ft in nearshore waters and 4-6 ft in offshore
Saturday through wednesday: no significant concerns with Atlantic
high pressure generally in control until a weakening cold front
moves into the area Wednesday. Seas look to be near 6 feet near the
Gulf Stream through Tuesday which could necessitate an advisory
there. Otherwise winds should mainly be 20 knots or less.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for amz374.