Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1243 am EDT Thursday Jul 28 2016
Atlantic high pressure along with an inland trough will prevail into
early next week.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
warm and humid conditions will persist overnight as expansive
high pressure holds firm and skies remain mostly clear. Lows will
range from mid-upper 70s inland to the lower 80s at the coast.
Short term /6 am this morning through Saturday/...
Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend westward over the
forecast area while a trough persists inland. This pattern will
maintain warmer than normal temperatures with highs generally in the
upper 90s inland but even near 90 at the coast. Heat indices will
peak around 105 degrees for most areas each afternoon, although
could briefly reach near 110 near the coast as the sea breeze pushes
inland. Unfortunately there will not be much relief at night either
with lows in the mid to upper 70s most places and closer to 80 at
the coast. Showers and thunderstorms will be few and far between
with the best chances coming Saturday when some deeper moisture
approaches from the northwest.
Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
west-southwesterly low level flow keeps a warm and humid airmass in
place through the long term period. Increasingly unsettled weather
will ensue as the ridge continues to slide off the southeast coast
and deep-layer moisture increases early next week. Global model
solutions begin to diverge significantly heading into the middle of
next week as a deteriorating cold front may approach the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Pops have been increased well into the
chance range, especially north of I-16, to account for this. Temps
will remain at least a few degrees above normal through the
Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/...
VFR at ksav/kchs through 06z Friday.
Extended aviation outlook: brief flight restrictions will be
possible with afternoon showers/thunderstorms this weekend.
overnight: the deep layer ridge and Atlantic surface high
pressure will bring south to southwest winds averaging 15-20kt
this evening and overnight. Seas will average 2-3 ft nearshore
waters and building to 3-4 ft offshore waters.
Thursday through monday: Atlantic high pressure will prevail
along with an inland trough. This pattern will favor south to
southwest winds that will gust near advisory levels /25 knots/ at
times, mainly along/off the Charleston County coast during late
afternoon/evening due to the sea breeze. Seas mostly 3 feet or
less, but 4 feet at times near the Gulf Stream.
record high minimums for 28 july:
kchs: 80 set in 2014...
kcxm: 83 set in 1999...
ksav: 81 set in 1878...