Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcar 191647
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1247 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017
high pressure will remain over the area today while Hurricane
Jose approaches southeastern New England. Jose will turn
eastward and track south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday into
Near term /through tonight/...
high pressure will remain ridged across the region this
afternoon. With abundant low level moisture, generally expect
skies to remain cloudy/mostly cloudy across central and downeast
portions of the forecast area this afternoon where scattered
showers are also possible. Areas of fog and patchy drizzle will
also persist near the downeast coast. Expect clouds will thin
and lift across northern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, where partly/mostly cloudy skies are expected.
Isolated showers are also possible across the north this
afternoon. The warmest temperatures this afternoon, in the mid
70s, are expected across northwest areas with the most sun.
Temperatures in the upper 60s to the lower 70s are expected
across much of the rest of the forecast area, with mid to upper
60s along the downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to
adjust for current conditions along with afternoon temperatures
and cloud cover.
Hurricane Jose is still expected to track north, then turn
northeast and east passing a few hundred miles southeast of Cape
Cod. A band of rain well north of the storm is expected to move
onto the downeast coast late today or this evening and continue
overnight. Otherwise, the main impact from Jose will be high and
potentially dangerous surf along the downeast coast through
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday/...
Jose, which is expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by
Wednesday morning, will reach as far north as 40n on Wednesday,
well south of the Gulf of Maine, before getting ready to turn
back to the southeast. Rain along the downeast coast should
taper off early Wednesday as high pressure begins pushing down
from the north. However, dangerous surf is expected to continue
through Wednesday and likely into Thursday as the slow moving
storm slides east then begins to turn back to the southeast.
Skies should partially clear over the north Wednesday but remain
mostly cloudy downeast. High pressure building down from the
north will then bring clearing from north to south Wednesday
night. This will give way to a sunny and mild day on Thursday as
high pressure and strong upper level ridging builds over the
area. Temperatures will be near, or just a few degrees above
normal on Thursday.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
dry wx through this term expected W/above normal temperatures.
Jose to begin to drop southward Thursday night into Friday as
shown by the latest forecast from the NHC. The biggest effects
will be along the coast but more so over the coastal waters and
this is addressed in the marine and tidal sections below.
High pres is set to build across the region Friday into the
weekend. The long range guidance diverges a bit for Saturday W/a
disturbance/frontal boundary forecast to slide down from Canada
which appears to be remnants of a mcc/MCS. The GFS is robust
W/bringing a decent dose of quantitative precipitation forecast across the northern tier while
the European model (ecmwf) is much drier and keeps much of the activity well
north of the state. The Canadian global model does hint at some
light rainfall, but much weaker. Thinking here is that the GFS
could be having convective feedback issues and therefore leaned
toward a much drier forecast. As stated above, daytime temps
will be averaging well above normal.
Interestingly enough, the 00z run of the European model (ecmwf) showed Jose
getting caught up in the path of Hurricane Maria and gets pushed
on out further the ENE later Sunday into Monday. The 00z GFS is
somewhat similar to this solution. We will need to wait and see
what transpires over the next several days.
Aviation /16z Tuesday through Sunday/...
near term: generally MVFR to LIFR conditions are expected with
low clouds and fog downeast this afternoon through tonight.
Generally VFR/MVFR conditions are expected across northern areas
this afternoon. Conditions should lower to IFR/LIFR levels
across northern areas again tonight. Conditions should improve
to VFR across the north on Wednesday and improve to MVFR
downeast. VFR conditions are then expected Wednesday night
through Thursday with the possible exception of some patchy fog
across the north early Thursday morning.
Short term: VFR right through the period for all terminals as
winds in the blyr become NNE allowing for clearing and no
near term: a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas remains in
effect this afternoon into Wednesday morning. Visibilities will
be reduced in fog this afternoon through tonight. Showers are
also possible this afternoon, with rain tonight.
Short term: Small Craft Advisory conditions to continue Thursday into Friday
W/sustained winds of 20 to 25 kts. There is a chance that gusts
could reach up to 35 kts especially on the outer zones on
Thursday. Seas will be 7-10 ft W/a ESE swell slowly subsiding to
5 to 7 ft by late Friday. Winds will drop back to 15 to 20 kt
a high surf advisory remains in effect and was extended into
Wednesday. Concern is very long period southeasterly swell from
Jose, currently running as high as 16 seconds. High period swell
will have a much greater impact in the surf zone. Long period
waves can run up much higher on the shore than shorter period
waves resulting in the danger of spectators being washed into
the ocean. Dangerous rip currents are also expected.
The astronomical tide will be at the highest levels of the
month as well over the next few days. Northeasterly winds are
expected to increase Wednesday resulting in an additional 1 foot
storm surge. The additional increase in water level due to the
winds coupled with high period southeasterly swell could result
in splash over around the time of high tide tonight (11:00 pm)
and Wednesday morning (11:30 am) in areas exposed to large ocean
Since the expected storm surge is going to be less than 2 feet,
the total water levels inland from the coast are not expected
to be high enough for flooding resulting from storm surge.
ME...high surf advisory until 8 am EDT Wednesday for mez029-030.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 8 am EDT
Wednesday for anz050>052.