Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1235 PM EDT Sat Jul 30 2016

high pressure will build across the region through tonight, then
move east on Sunday. Low pressure will track south of the region
Monday through Tuesday.


Near term /through tonight/...
1222 PM update: no sig chgs to fcst cld cvr from last update. We
again used latest obsvd sfc temps and dwpts to adjust fcst hrly
temps/dwpts into the aftn hrs. Fcst hi temps remain unchgd this

Orgnl disc: a weak northerly gradient should clear out any
lingering fog early this morning. High pressure will build in from
the northwest today. The day will then turn out sunny to partly
cloudy with some cumulus clouds across the north and a few high
clouds, mainly downeast. This will be followed by a mostly clear
and tranquil night tonight.


Short term /Sunday through Monday/...
low pressure will be located across the mid Atlantic region
Sunday, with high pressure across Maine. Expect mostly sunny
skies across northern areas Sunday, with mostly/partly sunny
skies downeast. The low will move east Sunday night with a trof
extending north across New England. Cloud cover will increase
across the region Sunday night. High pressure will slow the
advance of showers across the region. However, showers could
reach western and downeast portions of the forecast area Sunday
night. Showers will expand across the entire forecast area Monday
with the surface trof and an approaching upper level trof. A
chance of showers will persist across the region Monday night with
the upper trof starting to cross the region. Temperatures will be
at near normal levels Sunday. Near normal, to slightly below
normal, level temperatures are expected Monday.


Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
unsettled conditions with a chance of showers will persist across
the forecast area Tuesday while the upper trof crosses the
region. A series of upper level disturbances will cross the
region Wednesday/Thursday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the forecast area, particularly northern areas. A cold
front will then approach Friday with a chance of
showers/thunderstorms across the entire forecast area.
Temperatures should be at near normal, to slightly above normal,
levels Tuesday through Friday.


Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/...
near term: any fog early this morning will dissipate. VFR
conditions are then expected today and tonight with the possible
localized exceptions of some valley fog in a few low lying sites
late tonight.

Short term: generally expect VFR conditions across the region
Sunday through Sunday night, though MVFR conditions could begin to
develop later Sunday night. Occasional MVFR/IFR conditions are
possible across the region Monday, with occasional MVFR conditions
Tuesday. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible Wednesday, mostly
across northern areas.


near term: fog will dissipate this morning as the front pushes
offshore. Winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory today and tonight as
high pressure builds in from the northwest.

Short term: winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels Sunday through Monday night. Visibilities could be
reduced in showers later Sunday night into Monday night.


Car watches/warnings/advisories...



Near term...vjn
short term...Norcross
long term...Norcross

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations