Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1255 am EDT sun Jul 24 2016
a cold front will move east of the region overnight. High
pressure will cross the region Sunday. A warm front will cross the
region Monday. A cold front then crosses the region Monday night.
Near term /through today/...
1230 am update: latest radar ref shows that isold tstms ovr southeast
Washington County have finally dissipated to shwrs, with these too
xpcted to dissipate ovr the next hr or so. Otherwise, skies were
update ovr the north toward clearer skies. With grad northwest winds of 5 to
10 mph ovr the north hlf of the forecast area and dwpt depressions of 5 to 10 deg
f, we took patchy fog out of the fcst for the north hlf of the forecast area.
Lastly, we updated fcst hrly temps/dwpts from latest obsvd temps
to fcst lows adjusted downward for nrn Vly lctns.
Prev disc: high pressure will then build in from the west later
tonight into Sunday bringing clearing skies from west to east.
Sunday will be mostly sunny in western and downeast areas and
sunny to partly cloudy over the far northeast as the high builds
in. Temps will still be warm but the humidity will be just a bit
lower than today as slightly drier air moves in.
Short term /tonight through Tuesday/...
high pressure will cross the region Sunday night with mostly
clear skies. A warm front will cross the region Monday with a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. A cold front then crosses
the region Monday night keeping a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the forecast area. The cold front moves east
of the region early Tuesday. However, an upper level disturbance
will cross the region. Expect partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies
along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms across northern
areas Tuesday, with partly sunny skies along with a slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms downeast. Temperatures will be at
slightly above normal levels Monday/Tuesday.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sunday/...
high pressure will build across the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday night with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies. A cold
front will approach the region Thursday with a chance of
showers/thunderstorms in advance of the front. Uncertainty then
develops Friday into Saturday regarding how rapidly the front
moves through the area. The front could stall across the region
Friday into Saturday which would keep the chance of showers across
the forecast area. Temperatures are expected to be at slightly
above normal levels Wednesday/Thursday, with near normal level
Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
near term: locally IFR or MVFR conditions are possible in any
thundershowers early this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected across the region tonight through Sunday.
Short term: generally expect VFR conditions Sunday night into
early Monday. Variable conditions will then occur Monday afternoon
through Monday night with showers and thunderstorms. Occasional
MVFR conditions are possible across mostly northern areas Tuesday
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with generally VFR
conditions downeast. VFR conditions are expected across the
entire region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
near term: a few thunderstorms may effect coastal areas early
this evening. Otherwise, winds and seas are expected to be below
Small Craft Advisory tonight through Sunday.
Short term: winds/seas are expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels Sunday night through Tuesday. Could have a chance
of showers/thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into Monday night.
Visibilities will also be reduced in areas of fog Monday night
into early Tuesday.