Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
937 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017
a ridge of high pressure moves east this evening. A weakening
cold front approaches northern Maine later tonight and then
stalls. The front will return northward as a warm front later
Near term /through Friday/...
update 6:30 pm: have adjusted temperature and dew point. No
The high pressure ridge will crest over the area this evening.
As winds back to the southwest, stubborn stratocumulus and
flurries entrenched over Aroostook County will slowly erode.
Meanwhile, high and mid clouds will thicken from the west ahead
of a cold front that will arrive in the northwest corner of the
forecast area by late tonight. These clouds will likely preclude
a lot of radiational cooling as lows drop into the low to mid
20s for most of the region. There will be more clearing towards
the coast and have adjusted lows a bit further downward in the
down east region. The cold front will get into Aroostook County
Friday morning, but make very little additional progress
southward. Snow squalls with the front are expected to fall
apart before crossing the Saint John river. By afternoon, the
front will transform into a warm front as low pressure in
Ontario approaches. This warm front will bring the chance of a
few snow showers to Aroostook County and a warmer south wind.
This means milder high temperatures for the entire area on
Friday. Expect lower 40s and mostly sunny skies for Bangor and
Short term /Friday night through Sunday/...
wmfnt lifts thru Fri night with sctd snow showers possible in the
evng acrs the St. John Vly bfr diminishing to isold snow showers by
mrng as main bndry lifts north of County Warning Area. Warm advection and upglide wl
be enuf to generate light pcpn twd daybreak acrs the north with a
dusting possible but little more than that expected. Temps wl be
nearly steady or slowly rise drg the ovrngt as srly winds draw in
Cold front wl be appchg Sat aftn and mvg thru County Warning Area Sat night. Temps
wl warm enuf ahd of the front to be rain acrs the north and west Sat
before mixing with and changing to snow drg the nighttime hrs. Maxes
on Sat wl warm into the 40s acrs the North Woods and into the l50s
in coastal downeast.
Front wl be offshore by 12z sun with snow showers pretty much
everywhere with the exception of the coast where blyr wl likely be
warm enuf. Upr lvl trof wl be mvg thru County Warning Area on sun with light snow
showers expected off and on throughout the day. Under caa temps on
sun wl be blo normal.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
cyclonic flow conts into early next week with stratocu and isold
snow showers and/or flurries on Monday. Temps on Mon will
average about 8-10 degrees blo normal. 12z ec and CMC are much
cldr than GFS for Mon night/Tue mrng. Wmfnt lifts thru on Tue
with warming temps and chc pcpn acrs far north followed by cdfnt
Tue night. Yet another upr lvl trof mvs thru drg the mid-week
with blo normal temps, stratocu and chcs for snow
showers/flurries thru the end of the long term. No significant
systems expected thru Thursday.
Aviation /03z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: MVFR cigs north of hul will slowly erode by this
evening. These cigs may produce flurries, but no significant vis
reduction. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast.
Short term: VFR through end of the period though MVFR will be
possible at northern terminals in low stratocu in NW flow.
near term: longer period swell is expected through tonight and
will continue with a Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas
through 7am Friday. Winds will increase again late Friday
afternoon from the southwest...approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions.
Short term: Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Fri night and Sat with wind
gusts aoa 25kts and seas > 5ft. Levels drop blo Small Craft Advisory criteria Sat
night before increasing again Sun morning in wake of fropa.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 7 am EST Friday