Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kcar 280409 
afdcar

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1209 am EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Synopsis...
a series of weak low pressure systems from southern Quebec will
move east crossing just south of the region overnight through
Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure will then build toward the
region Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

Near term /through Tuesday/...
12 am update...
decided to drop the Winter Weather Advisory for NE zones as
radar showed snow pulling out. Some snow showers expected
through the overnight but minor accumulations expected. Temps
will remain where they are in the mid to upper 20s north and
lower 30s downeast.

Previous discussion...
steady precipitation associated with short wave crossing the
region this afternoon should diminish from west to east through
early this evening. Surface temperatures across the region have
remained generally in the mid to upper 20s across the north and
low 30s downeast with precip type mainly snow across the north
and a wintry mix central and downeast. Will continue the winter
weather advisories into this evening. Once the steady
precipitation associated with the exiting short wave exits the
region this evening, expect cloudy skies overnight with
lingering light snow or patchy freezing drizzle, as abundant low
level moisture remains in place. Lows tonight are not expected
to fall much from current afternoon readings with mid to upper
20s across the north and lower 30s downeast.

Another batch of steady precipitation is expected to overspread
the area Tuesday morning in advance of the next approaching
disturbance. Temperatures are expected to moderate on Tuesday
with precipitation across the north starting as a mix or snow
before transitioning to rain, with mainly rain expected
downeast.

Highs on Tuesday should rise into the mid to upper 30s north and
lower 40s downeast.

&&

Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday/...
the back edge of the last ovrrng precip shield will be movg east of
the region with lgt rn chgng to lgt sn spcly across the north hlf of
the region before tapering off to sct sn shwrs ovrngt with any
accumulation arnd an inch or less. Otherwise, xpct mcldy skies
late Tue ngt thru Wed with morn sn and aftn rn/sn shwrs spcly
across the north. Shwrs should msly dissipate Wed eve with slow
decreasing cldnss from S to north late Wed ngt and Thu. Temps thru
the short range will be at or a little below avg for this tm of
season.

&&

Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
Artic air will be msly in retreat thru the long range with the
srn edge ovr nrn can by the weekend, so temps in the long range
should avg close to normal for this tm of season, with milder
ovrngt lows offsetting cooler day tm highs.

Otherwise...skies will will be fair Thu ngt into Fri as sfc hi
pres crosses the region from qb prov...with increasing cldnss
late Fri and Fri ngt as low pres systems from the great lks and
mid Atlc states consolidate ovr the srn Gulf of ME. The 12z
suite of all model guidance was less certain about the track and
how much quantitative precipitation forecast from this system will affect our region from late
Fri ngt thru Sat ngt or even into sun morn, so model blended
pops were actually capped to a Max of hi chc for Sat/Sat eve
until later model runs come into a better scenario agreement.
Typical as we get later into Spring, with the absence or
uncertainty of strong dynamics...precip types begin to become
more dictated by diurnal/nocturnal temp trends, meaning more in
the way of sn in the ovrngt and Erly morn hrs and more in the
way of rn from late morn into the Erly eve hrs.

Following any impacts from this system, there should be a break
between systems sun aftn thru Mon.

&&

Aviation /04z Tuesday through Saturday/...
near term: IFR expected overnight in precipitation, patchy fog,
low ceilings. Expect these conditions to persist into much of
Tuesday.

Short to long term: IFR clgs/vsbys in lgt rn/sn Tue eve will
transition to MVFR conditions in shwrs late Tue ngt. MVFR clgs
and ocnl vsbys in sn/rn shwrs will cont thru the day ovr nrn
taf sites Wed while downeast sites improve to VFR. All sites
will be VFR Wed ngt into Fri ngt...lowering to MVFR/IFR in rn/sn
late Fri ngt into Sat.

&&

Marine...
near term: Small Craft Advisory remains in effect overnight with
wind/seas dropping below Small Craft Advisory criteria on
Tuesday.

Short to long term: marginal Small Craft Advisory or no hdlns are xpctd thru
these ptns of the fcst. Kept close to ww3 WV guidance thru these
ptns of the fcst.

&&

Car watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 3 am EDT Tuesday for anz050>052.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations