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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1242 am EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

high pressure will remain across the area tonight through Friday.
The high will slowly lift northeast of the region Saturday into
Sunday as low pressure tracks off the mid-Atlantic coast.


Near term /through today/...
1240 am update...high clouds are spreading over the state at this
hour, with just the Saint John valley remaining cloud free. The
deck should be thin enough with enough breaks to allow
temperatures to drop at least a little more, though, and to keep
from totally limiting fog development over the north. Indeed,
patchy fog has already been reported this morning. Have therefore
added fog to the forecast through dawn. Also tweaked sky cover a
bit to go with mostly clear rather than clear. Otherwise, any
other changes were minor.

Previous discussion...the models are in good agreement through
the period. A high pressure ridge will dominate the weather for
the state through the forecast period. An occluded low over
southern Kentucky, with the occluded front extending to the coast
of New Jersey and a warm front extending east into the North
Atlantic. The warm front will move north to Cape Cod by the end of
the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/Gem/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded nawave4 for seas in the coastal
waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For quantitative precipitation forecast used rfcqfp for
first 12 hrs and a GFS for the rest.


Short term /tonight through Sunday/...
high pressure cresting over the area will bring clear skies across
the north Friday night. A large but poorly organized storm system
with an upper low centered in the southern Great Lakes and a weak
surface low off the mid-Atlantic coast will push some moisture into
southern areas Friday night into Saturday. This will bring mostly
cloudy conditions downeast into Saturday where some light rain is
possible along the coast. Some light rain will be possible in
coastal areas Saturday night as the north remains dry. By Sunday,
one weak wave of low pressure will be sliding to the east allowing
surface high pressure to build back over our area. Upper level
moisture will result in cloudy skies downeast and a cloudy to partly
sunny sky across the north on Sunday. Most areas, however, should
remain rain free on Sunday.


Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
the upper low in the Midwest will begin to lift out Sunday night
into Monday carrying moisture northeast and increasing the chances
for rain over our area on Monday. Upper level ridging will then
build across Monday night into Tuesday pressing moisture back south
and bringing a trend toward clearer skies from south to north. High
pressure both surface and aloft should then bring clear and mild
weather across the region Wednesday through Thursday. Our focus late
in the week and going into next weekend will be on the track of
Hurricane Matthew which is being carried up the East Coast by some
of our forecast guidance. The eventual track will be determined by
the position of the upper level ridge over the northeast in
combination with the timing of a trough moving in form the Midwest.
If the hurricane approaches the northeast, it could affect our
weather beginning early next weekend.


Aviation /06z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: VFR next 24 hours.

Short term: VFR conditions are expected across the area Friday
night into Saturday with the possible exception of some coastal
areas dropping to MVFR on Saturday. MVFR to IFR conditions in
lower clouds are expected downeast Saturday night into Sunday with
a continuation of VFR conditions across the north. MVFR to IFR
conditions are expected across the area Sunday night into Monday
as moisture lifts across the region.


near term:
winds and seas will be below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period.
Winds will be 15 to 20 kts and seas around 5 ft at the start of
the period, subsiding early as higher pressure builds across the

Short term: winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
through early next week. All marine interests should should
closely follow forecast updates through next week with the
potential that Hurricane Matthew may impact our weather late next
week or next weekend.


Car watches/warnings/advisories...



Near term...Farrar/Norton
short term...Bloomer
long term...Bloomer

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