Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcar 230410
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1210 am EDT Sat Jun 23 2018
high pressure will slowly move southeast of the area overnight
into Saturday. Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes
later Saturday then cross the region Saturday night into Sunday.
Near term /through today/...
mdngt update: only minor chgs to fcst hrly cld cvr, temps, and
dwpts from prev update thru the remainder of the ngt based on
trends seen in latest Sat imagery and sfc obs.
Orgnl disc: cirrus and thickening high clouds will steadily
advance northward across the area into Saturday after an upper
level ridge crests over the area. Thicker high clouds and an
onshore flow will contribute to cooler Saturday afternoon highs
in the southern half of the area while northern Aroostook County
continues to see high temperatures moderate into the upper 70s
to lower 80s. Skies towards northern Aroostook County won't
become overcast until later in the day.
Short term /tonight through Monday/...
high pressure is expected to be over the region Saturday
evening. The high will move to the east into the Atlantic during
the day Sunday creating a southerly flow on the back side of
the high with moderating temperatures. Low pressure is expected
to approach the region from the south on Sunday and spread rain
into the area Sunday afternoon. The rain is expect to continue
into the day Monday as low pressure moves through the Gulf of
Maine. Will add scattered thunder to some coastal areas Saturday
Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
rain is expected to end Monday night as low pressure moves off
to the east into the Atlantic. Strong high pressure will build
to the south of the region Tuesday then move off to the
southeast Wednesday. This system will bring dry conditions
Tuesday into Wednesday but clouds will increase Wednesday as low
pressure approaches from the west. Showers are expected Thursday
and Friday as low pressure moves across the northern portion of
the region and a cold front moves through.
Aviation /04z Saturday through Wednesday/...
near term: VFR conditions with excellent vis and no cigs are
forecast through tonight. Cigs will develop and lower Saturday,
but should remain above 5000 feet.
Short term: expect VFR conditions Sunday. IFR/MVFR conditions
are expected Monday. VFR conditions are expected Tuesday and
near term: light winds, no fog and seas under 2 feet are
forecast through Saturday.
Short term: have initialized winds with a 50/50 blend of the NAM
and GFS for wind speeds. For waves: with relatively light winds
expected Saturday night into late Sunday, the primary wave
system is expected to be longer period swell 1 to 2 feet/7-8
seconds with a secondary wind wave around 1 foot. A more
significant northeasterly wind wave (around 4 feet/5-6 seconds)
is expected to develop Sunday night into Monday as low pressure
passes to the east. This will be accompanied by a longer period
southeasterly swell (around 3 feet/8 seconds) to produce a
combined sea of around 5 feet. Will use nwps to initialize
waves. Will add thunder to coastal areas Saturday night. Total
water level: will keep the base tide anomaly around 0.20 feet
along the coast for the next several days. In Bangor will expand
tidal range above astronomical tide by 0.50 feet for the next