Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1212 PM EDT sun Mar 26 2017
high pressure will crest over the region on today. Low pressure
will approach from the west tonight into Monday.
Near term /through tonight/...
1210 PM update...
abundant sunshine continues to prevail across the region at
midday. Temperatures this hour have climbed into the low to mid
20s north and into the lower 30s downeast. Only minor tweaks to
keep hourly temps/dew points current, otherwise no other
changes needed to forecast for the balance of the afternoon.
Clouds will continue to increase tonight as the high continues
to move east and a warm from approaches from the west.
Precipitation will begin to overspread western areas late
tonight and then reach the Maine/New Brunswick border toward
daybreak Monday. Snow accumulation overnight will range from
about an inch across the Central Highlands to less than an inch
The main changes with this update were to slow the progression
of clouds into the area this afternoon. Also, have slowed the
progression of snow into the area tonight by about a couple
hours based on very dry air mass in place that will take time
Short term /Monday through Tuesday night/...
system currently spinning in the MS rvr Vly tonight wl eject
northeast twd the area this weekend. By 12z Mon, most of the area to
the north and east of Bangor shud be all snow. Strong 800 mb winds mvg
in FM srn New England wl quickly increase 800 mb temps aft this time
with a mixed bag of pcpn acrs srn and wrn zones, most lkly in the
form of snow and sleet. Expect this transition wl quickly spread to
the north and east thru the day with with downeast areas going
quickly to rain by noon. Coastal low wl dvlp late in the aftn and
enhance qpf acrs the coast.
Temps aloft still look to be in question tho regarding ptype. GFS is
colder than the NAM tho it appears to be related to juxtaposition of
800 mb jet. Latest NAM has 40-50kt jet acrs most of New England in the
aftn while 00z GFS splits low level jet into two with a relative minimum acrs
cntrl sxns of County Warning Area. With event being three periods away, hv gone with
a blend of NAM/GFS for ptype and can fine-tune as we get closer.
Pcpn wl gradually wind down late Mon ngt but expect pcpn to continue
acrs the far north in wrap-arnd cyclonic flow with upr-lvl trof
lurking nr the region. With temps well abv frzg on Tue expect that
most locales wl hv gone to rain by aftn tho questions continue to
cntr acrs the far north as the GFS rmns warmest with temps aloft
while NAM, CMC and ec indicate a mix of snow/sleet thru the day.
Guidance still rmns up in the air for Tue night tho NAM/GFS continue
to be consistent with ec and CMC slowly coming more in line with
soln. Hv gone with superblend for Tue night, leaning twd lkly acrs
far east zones and hichc elsewhere.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
hipres wl be building in starting thur and persist thru the end of
the week. Models consistently showing next system wl mv in FM the
west Sat mrng. Latest GFS is suppressed well to our south as it
heads east off the virgina CAPES. Ec brings robust sfc low off of
the New York bight with some lgt qpf spreading into County Warning Area Sat/Sat night ahd
of 500 mb trof. 00z CMC is most bullish with pcpn acrs entire forecast area Sat
into Sat night. Hv allowed for chc pcpn ovr the weekend tho
confidence is vry low with this system. Thru the end of the long
term pd temps wl settle out arnd normal.
Aviation /16z Sunday through Thursday/...
near term: expect VFR conditions today then IFR conditions by
Short term: expect to be IFR Mon morning at all sites in low
clouds and mixed precipitation. Improvement for southern
terminals possible on Tuesday though confidence is very low at
this time as to whether another system will impact all sites
thru Wed morning. MVFR restrictions may continue at northern
sites through the end of the pd in low clouds.
near term: winds/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels through tonight.
Short term: Small Craft Advisory looks to be needed Monday/Mon night for gusty
southeast winds ahead of sfc low crossing the Gulf along with
serly swell. Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas looks to be needed Tue night
into Wed with small craft levels continuing into Thursday.