Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
853 am EDT Mon Jun 26 2017
a trough of low pressure will remain to our west this week.
Occasional disturbances tracking out of this trough and across our
area will bring periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Near term /through tonight/...
855 am update: adjusted the pops to cover for the area of
showers moving into northern Piscataquis and Aroostook County.
Could see a tstm W/this area of showers as the laps soundings
show some elevated instability and steep laps rates this
morning. Activity will be moving out between by 1030 am W/some
drier air for the remainder of the day. Adjusted the sky cover
as well to include more clouds this morning.
a trough of low pressure currently over the region will weaken
during the day today. A few isolated showers are possible this
morning. Skies are expected to be partly sunny this afternoon.
Surface and upper level low pressure will approach the region
from the west tonight with clouds increasing later tonight.
Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday/...
S/WV dropping thru the Minnesota arrowhead at this time wl deepen as it
digs into the Great Lakes by the start of the short term. This wl
keep shower chances in thru the middle of the week, mainly in
diurnal htg of the day. Best focus for Tue looks to be acrs the
north where wk sfc bndry wl reside. As temps climb to nr 70 with
dewpts in the 50s, along with steepening mid-lvl lapse rates, wl
mention chc thunder aft 18z mainly north of coastal downeast.
Thunder wl diminish Tue evng as airmass stabilizes at sunset. Expect
isold showers wl be hit and miss drg the ovrngt hrs with upr trof
hanging back to the west. Airmass once again destabilizes in the
aftn leading to chc for thunder, hwvr upr lvl trof and assoc wk sfc
bndry mvs thru by aftn. Thus not expecting any more than just sctd
pops with isold thunder.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
Wed night wl feature a vry brief break in shower chcs as S/WV
ridge builds in aloft. Latest guidance differs quite a bit for
thur regarding pcpn chcs with GFS/ec mvg system into the central
great lks by 00z Fri with warm advection pcpn affecting wrn
zones and eventually all zones thur night. 00z CMC is a tad
slower with steadier pcpn not mvg in until 12z Fri. Wl hedge twd
GFS and ec soln with lkly pops expected thur ngt along with chc
for thunder. Unsettled wx conts thru next weekend as upr lvl
trof hangs back to our west.
Aviation /13z Monday through Friday/...
near term: VFR conditions are expected today and tonight.
Short term: VFR expected Tue morning across the north with
possible IFR at bhb in low clouds/fog. Potential for MVFR on Tue
afternoon north of bgr in -tsra. MVFR/IFR late Tue night into
Wed morning once again in low clouds/fog. VFR expected thur
before restrictions move in again Fri morning.
near term: have initialized the wind grids with the NAM. Will
lower wind speed by 10 percent due to the relatively cold sea
surface temperatures across local waters. For waves: long period
swell (around 3 feet/8 seconds) will be the primary wave system
through tonight. A secondary wind wave group out of the
southwest is expected to remain less than 1 foot. Will use the
nearshore wave prediction system (nwps) for wave heights. Have
adjusted wave heights in the surf zone forecast using the 5
meter isobath contour output from nwps.
Short term: expect winds and seas to remain below Small Craft Advisory until late
thur night. Visibilities over the waters will be reduced,
possibly Tue morning but likely Wed morning.