Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcar 190635
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
135 am EST Fri Jan 19 2018
high pressure will build across the region through Friday night.
Low pressure moving across southern Canada during the day on
Saturday will bring some precipitation to the northern parts of
the forecast area. High pressure then returns until Tuesday when
a much stronger storm system moves into the area.
Near term /through today/...
130am update...a cold front moving southward...combined with
high clouds moving from the west will likely cap lows for the
night in the next couple of hours. An upper trough crossing
Friday morning will set off some light snow showers for Bangor
and the down east region. Otherwise, a lot of cloud cover is
expected across the northern half of the forecast area on
Friday. Highs will be a bit warmer than Thursday. A warm front
will cross late tonight with an inch or two of snow in northern
Prev discussion blo...
should be a rather quiet evening. Clouds in place over the
northern third of the cwa, with mostly clear skies along the
coast. A weak impulse riding through zonal flow aloft could
generate some weak snow showers over the western portions of the
forecast area, with little or no accumulation expected. This is
being picked up nicely by both the operational Euro and to a
lesser extent the NAM.
Short term /tonight through Sunday/...
weak ridging moves in for tomorrow. Weak subsidence will be
enough to suppress showers, but not quite strong enough to rid
the area of clouds. Expect increasing clouds as the day
progresses and low pressure approaches the region from the west.
Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
low pressure passing to the north of the area early Saturday
will bring some showers to the northern sections of the County Warning Area.
This system appears to be a fast mover and should be gone by
Saturday afternoon. It may be strong enough though to produce an
inch or so of snow over extreme northern portions of Maine. In
it's wake will be two days of quiet weather on Sunday and Monday
before the next system arrives. Low pressure moving through the
Great Lakes region on Tuesday will bring precipitation to the
region Tuesday and Wednesday. This system looks like it will be
the most robust of the forecast period. It is still many days
out though, but we will be watching it to try and determine an
exact track and timing.
Aviation /07z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: VFR for all terminals though a brief MVFR cig will be
possible for northern sites tonight. Impact wl be minimal and wl
not include in forecast at this time. May see MVFR set in to the
north of hul Fri afternoon.
Short term: expect VFR conditions tomorrow, then deteriorating
to MVFR during the afternoon hours, and then possibly IFR
conditions tomorrow night and Saturday as low pressure passes
north of the region.
near term: no flags expected.
Short term: a Small Craft Advisory will likely be need on
Saturday as low pressure moves though.