Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kcar 291037
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
637 am EDT Sat Jul 29 2017
high pressure builds in from the northwest while low pressure
tracks well south of the Gulf of Maine, resulting in a dry and
mostly sunny weekend. A cold front from Quebec will approach the
region on Monday.
Near term /through tonight/...
636 am update... beautiful, albeit chilly start to the morning
across northern Maine. Estcourt Station in the far northwest tip
of Maine is currently a chilly 34 degrees. Bright sunshine was
occurring across the area but high clouds were starting to make
their way into down East Maine associated with low pressure
well to our south. No major changes made to going forecast other
than adjust temps/dew points based on latest conditions.
an upper level low north of the state will move east today
while high pressure at the surface builds across the region. Low
pressure will move northeast from the mid Atlantic region but
remain well south of the area through tonight. A bit of high
cloud associated with the low to our south will skirt down east
areas with some scattered stratocu expected across the north
associated with the departing upper low to our north. Still
skies should be mainly sunny today. Highs will range from the
low to mid 70s north and mid to upper 70s central and down east.
A beach hazards statement has been issued for the down East Coast
through this evening.
Mainly clear skies can be expected tonight and some patchy
valley fog will once again be possible. Lows tonight will range
from the low to mid 40s north and central areas and low to mid
50s down east.
Short term /Sunday through Monday night/...
sun still looks to fair with seasonal hi temps aft a chilly
start as a ridge of high pres from qb prove prevails. Skies will
cont fair sun ngt as the sfc pres ridge moves east of the rgn sun
Models are now showing a faster apch and passage of a cold front
from cntrl can for Mon, with the 00z opnl GFS model run fastest
with this feature. We went with more in the way of consensus
model slower tmg of the front, which brings the front into nrn
ME Mon aftn and into downeast areas Mon eve. Subsequently, pops
we indicate in the form of sct shwrs/tstms Max out in the hi
chc Cat Erly to mid aftn Mon across the north and cntrl and then
dissipate Mon eve ovr interior downeast areas. Prior to arrival
of any sct shwrs/tstms, hi temps should reach into the lower 80s
ovr low trrn lctns north of the immediate coast under more humid
Any remaining shwrs/tstms should dissipate by late Mon ngt with
clrg by Erly tues morn for the rgn as weak sfc hi pres build
swrd behind the front.
Long term /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tue now looks to be a little cooler and drier than Mon with ptly
to msly sunny skies. Aft fair conditions Tue ngt with seasonal
ovrngt lows, Wed looks to be warmer and more humid as sfc winds
shift to the SW behind departing sfc hi pres S of Nova Scotia.
A slow moving cold front from cntrl can will bring another chc
of shwrs/tstms msly across the north and west Wed aftn and eve.
Following Wed ngt, longer range models vary with regard to how
much long WV troffiness will be ovr the Midwest and how much in
the way of shwrs/tstms will impact our rgn for Thu and Fri.
Given these uncertainties, we kept Max pops in the chc category
for both days, with models indicating a couple of sfc WV lows
movg SW to NE possible toward and across our rgn as the main
l/WV trof hangs back toward the Midwest. Aft very warm hi temps
Wed, we scale back hi temps gradually for Thu and Fri.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
near term: VFR flying conditions expected through tonight
outside any late night patchy valley fog.
Short to long term: msly VFR for all taf sites xcpt briefly MVFR
for any thunderstorm or heavier rn shwrs across nrn taf sites spcly Mon
aftn/eve and again Wed aftn/eve.
Marterm: winds/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels through tonight.
Short to long term: no hdlns anticipated attm with WV hts msly 2
to 4 ft ovr the outer mzs and 1 to 2 ft ovr the near shore
waters. Primary WV pds will range from 6 to 10 sec with shorter
pds reserved for onshore winds.
ME...beach hazards statement through this evening for mez029-030.