Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1229 PM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017
high pressure will build across the region this afternoon. A
cold front will cross the region later Thursday through Thursday
Near term /through tonight/...
1225 PM update...minor changes were made with this update.
First, highs were bumped up a degree or two for many locations
and the sea breeze was represented with temperatures dropping
towards the coast by mid-afternoon into the evening. Otherwise,
made some adjustments on thunderstorm coverage for Thursday
afternoon. For the next update, will try to hone in on fog
coverage along the coast tonight into Thursday morning. The fog
looks like it'll affect areas east of mdi along the Washington
County coast later tonight.
Previous discussion...sunny and mild weather expected today as
high pressure slowly builds across the region. Highs will mainly
be N the upper 70s to lower 80s, though as usual, the immediate
coast will be cooler owing to onshore flow.
The high moves offshore tonight, making way for a cold front sinking
southward from Quebec. Showers associated with this boundary will
move into far northwestern Maine after midnight and push south and
east through daybreak Thursday. Increasing moisture ahead of the
front will keep overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s in most
locations, with some locations possibly staying in the lower 60s.
This moisture will also allow some patchy fog to develop late
tonight across downeast areas.
Short term /Thursday through Friday/...
a cold front will cross the region Thursday accompanied by
showers and the chance of a few thunderstorms, mainly across
northern and western areas. For now, have decided against
enhanced wording at this time. Sb cape forecast less than 1000j
and lapse rates not all that impressive. The cold front will
move east of the forecast area later Thursday night with any
lingering showers ending Thursday evening. High pressure will
build in on Friday with partly to mostly sunny skies expected.
High temperatures on Thursday will range from the upper 60s to
lower 70s but cooler along the coast. Highs on Friday will range
from the low to mid 70s but again cooler along the coast.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
looks like a decent stretch of weather coming up for the
weekend. The only fly in the ointment will be low pressure
moving northeast from the mid Atlantic region Friday night and
Saturday. The overall consensus of model solutions keeps the
low well to the south of Nova Scotia, leaving the forecast area
high and dry this weekend. However, the 00z operational GFS was
further north and tracks the low across southern Nova Scotia,
keeping down east on the northwest fringes of the rain shield
associated with the system. A couple of fronts may affect the
region early next week. High temperatures this weekend through
early next week are expected to be near to a bit above normal.
Aviation /18z Wednesday through Monday/...
near term: outside of some patchy fog, expect VFR conditions to
prevail through 03z Thu. Showers will move into the northern
terminals thereafter, with MVFR possible. Patchy fog will
develop downeast after 06z Thu, producing local MVFR/IFR
conditions at bhb and perhaps bgr.
Short term: showers are expected to accompany the passage of a
cold front Thursday with a chance of a thunderstorm across
western areas. MVFR conditions will be possible in any showers
otherwise VFR expected. VFR expected Friday through Sunday.
near term: no headlines are expected through the next 24 hours. High
pressure will build across the waters today and tonight, keeping
conditions fairly quiet. Winds and seas will increase a bit tonight
as a cold front draws closer from the north, but both parameters
will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Short term: winds/seas expected to remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels through the period.