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fxus61 kcar 280412 
afdcar

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1212 am EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

Synopsis...
a cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon. High
pressure will briefly build into the area, followed by a
secondary cold front on Saturday afternoon.

&&

Near term /through today/...
1210 am update...
no changes to overnight forecast.

Previous discussion...
expect lows to drop towards 50f with some mid to upper 40s on
the coast due to the onshore flow. Fog, light rain and drizzle
remain the predominant conditions under the persistent inversion
during Friday morning, but a weakening cold front will cross
during the afternoon and finally break up the inversion with
drier Continental air by Friday evening. Changed the type of
precipitation to showers for the afternoon, but do not expect
any thunderstorm activity as sb-cape doesn't make it into the
forecast area and elevated cape looks weak. Furthermore, fog and
stratus will tend to linger towards the coast all day as the
inversion won't break there until later Friday night. Highs on
Friday look warmer for most locations except the coastal zones.

&&

Short term /tonight through Sunday night/...
the models are in good agreement through the period. A weak
high pressure ridge will build into the area behind a cold
frontal system that moved over New Brunswick. A low moving
through the in/Illinois will move to southwestern Maine Saturday
morning. Saturday evening the low will move east if the area and
higher pressure will briefly build back in across the area. A
warm front will move into southwest Maine early Sunday
afternoon, then into central Maine by the end of the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/Gem/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded nawave4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For quantitative precipitation forecast used
GFS.

&&

Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
the extended models are in good agreement. An active period of
weather with lows and fronts tracking through the area every 12
hrs or so. A warm frontal system moves into southwest Maine at
the start of the period, and spread across the state by Monday
morning. The warm front will clear the area Monday evening, and
the associated cold front will move into northwest Maine. The
cold front will move east of the area Tuesday morning, higher
pressure will build into southern Maine. A filling low over
southwestern Quebec, will move east across northern Maine
Tuesday evening through Thursday morning bringing showers to the
area. High pressure will build into the area, but will be moved
east by the end of the period as another frontal system pushes
into southwest Maine by the end of the period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
nawave4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.

&&

Aviation /04z Friday through Tuesday/...
near term: LIFR to vlifr will continue at higher terrain
terminals such as gnr and fve through Friday morning. Other
terminals that are currently MVFR will slowly return to IFR and
LIFR this evening. By morning, all sites are expected to be LIFR
to vlifr due to fog and low clouds, but will recover to MVFR by
afternoon.

Short term: MVFR early in hul as a few scatter shower clear the
area, otherwise VFR all sites. VFR conditions over night,
increasing clouds and decreasing ceilings as a low moves into
the area Saturday morning. MVFR conditions in rain late morning
Sunday through early evening, then clearing. VFR conditions
Saturday evening through early afternoon Sunday. A warm front
will move into central Maine bringing conditons down to MVFR by
afternoon, the frontal system will stall over central Maine then
move north as a warm front. MVFR conditions will remain in bhb,
bgr, and hul, pqi, car, and fve will fall to IFR in rain Monday
afternoon. IFR conditions will spread to all sites early
Tuesday morning as the cold front moves through the state. MVFR
bhb, and bgr Tuesday morning, then to other sites Tuesday
afternoon. Wrap around precipitation around a filling low
pressure system over eastern Quebec will affect the area through
the end of the period keeping Maine in MVFR to IFR conditions.

&&

Marine...
near term: fog and long period south swell continue to be the
big issues on the waters tonight into Friday. The long period
swell should diminish enough to cancel the Small Craft Advisory
for hazardous seas by the advertised timeframe.

Short term: winds and seas are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria through the period.

&&

Car watches/warnings/advisories...
ME...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am EDT early
this morning for anz050-051.

&&

$$

Near term...duda/Hewitt

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