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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Caribou ME
119 am EDT Thursday Jul 28 2016

a cold front will approach tonight and stall across central areas
on Thursday. The front will slowly slide south Thursday night and
stall near the coast on Friday.


Near term /through tonight/...
120 am update...
cdfnt is now sitting on our doorstep with showers along with an
embedded tstm appchg wrn zones at this time. Hv lowered pops acrs
the north but wl continue with isold thunder acrs portions of the
North Woods and Central Highlands for the ovrngt as storms appch FM
Canada. Quick update to bring temps and tds in line with current
obs with no other major chgs needed attm.

Previous discussion...
for Thursday, the cold front is forecast to slowly slide S and
then stall across the downeast region Thursday afternoon. Activity
is forecast to set up again later in the morning right into the
afternoon, first across northern 1/2 of the County Warning Area and then down
across the Central Highlands and downeast region. Atmosphere
appears to be a bit more favorable especially for the central and
downeast areas. Instability increases dramatically W/cape values
hitting 2000+ joules and 0-6km shear around 20+ kts. Strong
convergence along the front will allow for organized cells W/some
becoming strong or even severe. 0-3km lapse rates are forecast to
be 7.5 c/km W/mid level lapse rates hitting 6.5 c/km which is
favorable for possible severe is cells can get going. Will go
ahead and add enhanced wording for heavy rainfall and strong wind
gusts. In the stronger cells, redevelopment of storms could lead
to a flash flood potential W/heavy rainfall rates. Again, the best
potential attm looks to be across the central and downeast areas
from Millinocket and Greenville into the Bangor- Calais region.
Afternoon temps will warm well into the 80s in these areas
W/dewpoints in the 60s.


Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
a cold front is expected to stall across the outer Gulf of Maine
Friday night. Low pressure is then expected to move northeast
along the front. Showers are expected in coastal areas from this
system. High pressure is then expected to build in from the west
Saturday with dry conditions. Dry weather is also expected Sunday
as the high pressure system moves across New England.


Long term /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
high pressure will move off-shore late Sunday. A cold front is
expected to approach from the north Monday with some showers
possible in northern areas Monday and Tuesday while the south will
remain dry. Another cold front will approach the region from the
northwest Wednesday with more showers possible later Wednesday and
Thursday as the front moves through.


Aviation /05z Thursday through Monday/...
near term: VFR at most terminals next 24 hours. Exception may be
bhb this morning with IFR vsbys forecast to develop in the next
svrl hours, continuing through 12z. MVFR restrictions expected in
fog after 00z tonight with potential for IFR/LIFR toward end of
taf valid time.

At bgr may see MVFR vsbys between 03z and 06z Fri in southerly
flow along stalled frontal boundary. Further to the north, expect
thunderstorms in the vicinity at any point after 18z this afternoon. Any terminal
experiencing -tsra will likely see lower restrictions and variable

Short term: MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Friday at kbgr and
kbhb while VFR conditions are expected in the north. VFR
conditions are expected all areas Sunday through Monday.


near term: winds/seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory
levels overnight through Thursday. Visibilities will be reduced
in patchy fog overnight into early Thursday. Scattered afternoon
showers/thunderstorms could reduce visibilities Thursday.

Short term: have used the nam12 for winds through Saturday then
transition to the super blend winds. For waves: will use the near
shore wave model to initialize grids through Saturday then
transition to the wave watch iii. Wwiii continues to show a high
bias with boundary conditions feeding into the near shore so have
lowered wave heights by 1 foot through the period. Expect primary
wave system Friday into Saturday to be wind wave from low pressure
passing to the east. For the remainder of the period expect longer
period incoming swell to dominate as wind speeds remain below 10


Car watches/warnings/advisories...



Near term...Farrar
short term...Bloomer
long term...Bloomer

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