Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 261027
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
627 am EDT sun Mar 26 2017
a weak front will move into our region today. A series of
systems will affect our region next week, providing a chance of
showers, and possibly thunderstorms, at times. Above normal
temperatures expected through the period.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the main upper trough will lift northward and then northeast of
the area through the day. Scattered showers, and possibly an
isolated thunderstorm, will be possible later in the day as the
trough pushes through. Best chance for rainfall will remain
across the western counties, with slight chance to possibly chance
pops warranted in that area. Further east, mainly slight chance
or lower for pops. Cloud cover will help to limit highs
somewhat, but with good warm advection on southerly winds,
temperatures still forecast to rise into the middle to upper
Short term /6 PM this evening through Tuesday night/...
upper trough over the plains will move toward the midwestern
states tonight and toward the Ohio Valley on Monday. The trough
will push off the coast Tuesday afternoon with an upper ridge
building east over the southeastern Continental U.S. Tuesday night. Moisture
will linger in the area on Monday ahead of the upper trough,
although no trigger is present. Diurnal heating, along with
convergence along old front or sea breeze, could provide a
slight chance of showers with isolated thunderstorms. Models
indicate weak instability Monday. Weak to moderate instability
is expected on Tuesday as the upper disturbance moves through.
Significant rainfall and severe weather are not expected. Drier
air will begin to return to the area Tuesday night. Temperatures
both days are forecast above normal with highs in the lower 80s
and lows in the middle to upper 50s.
Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
models are in good agreement showing upper ridging over the
southeastern states on Wednesday as a closed upper low moves
into the Southern Plains. The surface front appears to stall in
our vicinity, with a possible weak wedge-like regime to the
north of it. Some question as to where the front/weak wedge may
set up, which provides some uncertainty for Wed/Thu. The front
would presumably eventually lift back north as a warm front
ahead of the next system, that GFS and ec generally bring into
our region Thu nt/Fri time frame. However, confidence of model
timing and position of closed upper systems can be limited late
in the forecast period. So, some limited confidence on specifics
mid to late week. Generally used a model blend, which provides
mainly slight chance to chance pops at times through much of the
period, and above normal temps generally, though any weak
wedginess could limit Max temps on a day or two mid week for
parts of the fa, mainly north, if it sets up.
Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/...
expect VFR conditions to persist through the period.
Current satellite and surface obs indicate VFR ceilings across
the region, with mainly mid and upper level clouds. All
guidance in agreement with keeping conditions VFR, dropping
ceilings down to low end VFR at times through the day. As the
trough moves through during the afternoon, a few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible, although the coverage will be
limited to west of taf sites. Winds this morning light out of
the south, then increase to between 5 and 10 knots through the
Extended aviation outlook...MVFR to IFR restrictions possible
each morning as moist southerly flow persists over the