Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
210 PM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016
warm high pressure over the region will weaken this afternoon. A
cold front will cross the area Friday morning. An upper-level
ridge over the southeastern states will weaken allowing an upper-
level trough to cross the region Friday through Saturday. Much
cooler and drier air will move in behind the front for the
Near term /through tonight/... skies will remain mostly clear
through the remainder of the afternoon. Afternoon temperatures
will top out in the middle to upper 80s. This will be very close
to regards at Columbia...89 degrees set in 1984 and at
Augusta...89 degrees also set in 1984.
Tonight...a deep trough that is approaching the MS River Valley
this afternoon will approach the area toward morning. One of the
strongest cold fronts the region has seen this fall will begin to
enter the state late tonight into early Friday morning. The
moisture looks limited overnight and therefore pops are less than
10 percent tonight. Although little rainfall is expected with the
front...temperatures will be cooler behind the front for the
weekend. Model time sections indicate a developing low level jet
of 20 to 25 knots by morning along with some mid level clouds.
Guidance temperatures have been consistent with overnight lows in
the lower to middle 60s. Think this is on track with some clouds
overnight and light winds.
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
a deep upper level trough will cross the eastern conus over the
weekend. Models in good agreement with the associated cold front
crossing the midlands and csra through midday Friday. Moisture
along the front still appears to decrease as it moves into the
area given downslope northwest flow. MOS pops are slightly lower
this model run. Have indicated slight chance pops across the north
midlands Friday morning with dry condition farther south.
By the afternoon, any showers will be pushing off to the east with
cold air advection and dry air filtering into the area. Winds on
Friday just ahead of and behind the cold front will increase,
becoming rather gusty through the afternoon hours. Wind gusts
between 20 and 25 mph will be possible, but expect conditions to
remain just below lake Wind Advisory criteria. Temperatures still
expected to be at or slightly above normal Friday as downslope
offsets cold air advection. Kept daytime highs a few degrees lower
than guidance...ranging from the lower 70s north and west to around
Cooler and drier air will overspread the region Friday night into
Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west. Autumn-like
temperature will be across the region. Lows both Friday night and
Saturday night will fall into the 40s. Afternoon highs on Saturday
will be in the middle 60s north, to the upper 60s in the southern
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
dry weather, along with seasonable temperatures will prevail through
next week. Another cold front appears to cross the region late
Monday. Given limited moisture, the front will come through the area
dry. Monday should be the warmest day with high temperatures in the
mid and upper 70s. Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 70s and
lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
high pressure will continue to weaken across the area this
afternoon with a cold front approaching from the west. The front
will cross the area Friday morning. Clouds associated with the
front will be on the increase from west to east late tonight
although no rain is expected at the terminals due to limited
moisture. Models have backed off of fog/stratus development early
Friday morning, mainly due to increased clouds and a developing 20
to 25 knot low level jet limit development. Therefore have not
included in current taf package. Behind the front on Friday it
will become breezy across the area...especially during the
afternoon...as good cold air advection develops. Expect partly
cloudy skies with winds from the west increasing by the afternoon
around 15 knots with gusts around 25 knots.
Extended aviation outlook...high pressure will settle across the
area for the extended period. Otherwise, it will be breezy