Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
756 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
fair and warm conditions will continue over the weekend into next
week. A weak dry front moving through late Sunday/early Monday
will reinforce dry conditions early to mid next week.
Near term /until 6 am Saturday morning/...
high pressure will build into the forecast area from the north
behind the diffuse front tonight. It will be dry and satellite
trends support mostly clear skies. Nocturnal cooling and light
wind should help support fog during the early morning hours but
with little low-level moisture the fog should be limited. Expect
patchy fog mainly near bodies of water. The temperature forecast
is on track. Lows should be in the lower and middle 50s.
Short term /6 am Saturday morning through Sunday night/...
dry and mild weather continues over the weekend with surface high
pressure centered over the forecast area Saturday then shifting
offshore by Sunday allowing a southerly flow to develop over the
region. An upper-level ridge will move over the area Saturday
then the 500 mb flow flattens Sunday in advance of an approaching
shortwave trough which will pass by to our north off the mid-
Atlantic coast Sunday evening allowing a weak backdoor front to
push into the region. Moisture again will be limited with this
front and no precipitation is expected.
High temperatures will continue to be some 10-15 degrees above
normal this period with Max temperatures in the mid to possibly
upper 80s and approach record highs. Low temperatures will also
remain mild in the mid 50s.
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
surface high pressure will remain entrenched over the region
through mid week while a building upper ridge over the
southeastern states will ensure continued warm and dry conditions.
Temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 50s.
Late in the forecast period the medium-range models show the
upper ridge over the southeastern states retrograding westward
allowing for an amplified upper trough to dig down the East Coast
but there are some differences in timing between the latest GFS
and previous ecwmf leading to low confidence in possibility of
precipitation at this point. Both models hinting at a closed upper
low developing over the southeast Friday. Latest mex guidance
showing chance pops for late Friday. Given current uncertainties,
for now will lean towards a low pop for Friday.
Aviation /00z Saturday through Wednesday/...
a weak dry cold front will continue pushing south through the area
tonight with dry high pressure returning for Saturday. Mostly
clear skies and light/calm winds are expected at the terminals
through the overnight period. The hrrr shows LIFR conditions
developing in the eastern portion of the forecast area towards
daybreak Saturday morning which would affect the ogb terminal. The
local radiation fog tool which incorporates the crossover
temperature shows MVFR fog at cae/cub and LIFR at ogb and ags
toward daybreak. This appears reasonable so have continued with
restrictions at all of the terminals between 11 and 13z. Expect
rapid improvement by 13z with diurnal heating/mixing.
Extended aviation outlook...
late night/early morning fog possible.
record high temperatures 10/28-10/31
10/28 10/29 10/30 10/31
cae 90/1984 86/1919 88/1984 88/1950
ags 89/1984 85/1996 90/1984 89/1961