Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 190736
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
236 am EST Fri Jan 19 2018
a dry surface pressure ridge will dominate through Sunday.
Moisture will increase ahead of a cold front Monday. The front
will move through the forecast area Monday night or Tuesday
morning. Showers will be associated with the front mainly
Monday night. Warmer conditions will occur over the weekend and
early next week.
Near term /through tonight/...
dry surface high pressure with flat upper ridging will continue
to dominate through tonight. Satellite trends support clear
skies. It should be not quite as cold because of air mass
modification. The temperature guidance was close. The pressure
gradient will be weak with the surface high in the region. The
NAM and GFS MOS support wind 10 mph or less.
Short term /Saturday through Sunday night/...
dry conditions will prevail through Sunday night with surface
ridging continuing to dominate. The models show a mid-level
shortwave trough approaching Saturday and moving through the
area Saturday night. Significant moisture ahead of the trough is
depicted well southeast of the forecast area. Expect just some
cloudiness here. The upper feature should be off the southeast
coast Sunday and Sunday night with ridging in its wake. Air mass
modification will result in milder temperatures. We followed
the guidance consensus. The NAM, GFS, and European model (ecmwf) MOS support wind
west about 10 mph Saturday, with even less wind Sunday with the
surface ridge axis shifted a little farther north and near the
Long term /Monday through Thursday/...
more significant upper troughing will begin to affect the
region Monday and moisture will increase. The models display
the associated cold front approaching Monday and moving through
the area Monday night or Tuesday morning. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) MOS
indicate the highest pops Monday night with values 50 to 60
percent. A dry air mass will then dominate behind the front
during much of Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast confidence
diminishes Thursday. The deterministic European model (ecmwf) has dry ridging in
control. The GFS shows a tight moisture gradient near the coast
associated with a frontal system. The ensemble mean pops are
low with the European model (ecmwf) about 10 percent and GFS 20 percent. We kept
the dry forecast. The GFS and European model (ecmwf) MOS have temperatures above
normal through Tuesday and near normal Wednesday and Thursday.
Aviation /07z Friday through Tuesday/...
VFR conditions through the period.
High pressure will continue to build into the area from the west
today promoting clear skies. Winds will be light and variable or
calm at times overnight. The dry air mass will preclude any fog
formation this morning. Surface winds will be light and
generally out of the west-southwest today with the center of the surface
high still to our west.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts to aviation
expected through Monday.