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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Columbia SC
724 PM EDT Wednesday Jul 27 2016

high pressure over the region will keep above normal temperatures
in the forecast through the end of the week. Afternoon thunderstorms
will be isolated the next few days...possible better chance over
the weekend into next week as moisture increases.


Near term /until 7 am Thursday morning/...
an upper level ridge remains along with a weak Lee-side trough
over the area. Surface ridge still offshore. Had an isolated
shower or two close to the csra earlier, but most activity is now
diminished as we get closer to sunset. A low level jet overnight
should promote mixing with temperatures forecast in the middle


Short term /7 am Thursday morning through Friday/...
an upper level ridge will dominate Thursday with surface
low pressure developing in the northeast. Large scale subsidence
will allow for another hot day with 850 mb temperatures near or
slightly warmer than previous days. Heat index values will
approach 110 degrees, nearing heat advisory criteria. The chance
for showers and thunderstorms remains low with the ridge aloft
and a drier atmosphere. Precipitable water values will range from 1.25 to 1.5
inches. A tightening pressure gradient will allow for breezy

The ridge will weaken Friday as an upper trough moves eastward.
A surface trough may move into the region and stall which may
trigger some convection as a few shortwaves support development.
Instability remains weak however. Temperatures both
maximum/minimum should remain above normal.


Long term /Friday night through Wednesday/...
the upper ridge continues to weaken in the mid-term, which
supports a general increase in pops as shortwaves move over the
region and Lee-side troughing promotes convergence. Moisture and
the chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase late this
weekend into early next week as surface high pressure shifts
eastward and a backdoor front moves into the mid-Atlantic states.
The synoptic pattern supports above normal temperatures with highs
in the mid/upper 90s and overnight lows in the low/mid 70s.


Aviation /23z Wednesday through Monday/...
VFR conditions through the taf period.

A mid level cap and relatively very warm airmass should restrict
thunderstorm development this evening. Later tonight, another low
level jet around 25 knots will develop and with the warm
temperatures, fog is not expected. Winds will continue out of the
south through this evening between 8 and 10 knots and will become
light and variable tonight. VFR conditions will prevail on
Thursday with a slightly drier airmass over the region.

Extended aviation outlook...low potential for restrictions in
afternoon and evening convection each day.


Cae watches/warnings/advisories...



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