Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 291051
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
651 am EDT Sat Jul 29 2017
a cold front will push through the area today. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front
today. Behind the front, cooler and drier conditions are then
expected tonight through early next week as high pressure
builds over the region. Temperatures will moderate by midweek
and moisture will slowly increase.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms early this
morning ahead of short wave trough in east Tennessee/North
Carolina mountains. Modest lift across north midlands associated
with exit region upper level jet. Instability weak at the
moment. Surface analysis at 07z indicates cold front in the
North Carolina mountains. Positively tilted upper trough over
the Ohio Valley will move toward the mid Atlantic coast.
Stronger short wave trough will move through the Carolinas later
this morning/afternoon. Convection along the front this morning
will move toward the coastal plain this afternoon. With surface
dew points in the low to mid 70s ahead of the front and precipitable
water above 2 inches expect moderate instability. A few
strong storms possible in the southeast midlands through mid
afternoon but severe threat appears limited due to relatively
weak vertical shear. Main threat appears to be locally heavy
rain. Warm start this morning so despite cold front early this
afternoon in the central midlands expect temperatures around 90
degrees possibly warmer.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Monday/...
focus for convection should be mainly in the coastal plain this
evening. Cooler and drier air will be filtering into the region
behind the front. Strong mixing in the boundary layer will
offset degree of cooling tonight.. highs on Sunday will be in
the middle 80s then some air mass modification Monday.
Dewpoints falling into the 60s and even some 50s through Sunday
and Monday with mostly clear skies.
Long term /Monday night through Friday/...
an upper level low over the mid Atlantic will carve out a deep
upper trough over the region through Wednesday that will linger
into much of the week. Much drier conditions will prevail
through Tuesday as surface high pressure builds into the region
from the north and a cold front remains well to our south. Air
mass moderating by mid week and dry conditions should continue
although moisture may increase late in the period as frontal
boundary across the Gulf Coast region lifts north. Temperatures
should be much more pleasant with afternoon highs in the middle
to upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid/upper 60s through
Wednesday then gradually into the lower 70s by Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures will creep into the upper 80s and some
areas with temperatures around 90 by the Thursday.
Aviation /12z Saturday through Wednesday/...
VFR conditions expected through most of the taf period.
Scattered showers continue to move across the area this morning
as the cold front pushes through the upstate. Expect the front
to cross cae/cub/ags/dnl around midday and ogb by mid afternoon.
With more time for heating before fropa at ogb have remained
with thunderstorms in the vicinity through the afternoon hours. Behind the front winds
will become northerly with cooler and drier air moving into the
region. With northerly winds around 6 knots overnight do not
expect any fog or stratus to develop.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts to aviation