Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 261451
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
951 am EST sun Feb 26 2017
cool and dry high pressure will build over the area today.
Moisture returns Monday as the area of high pressure moves off
the coast. A cold front will cross the region around the middle
of the week bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Near term /through tonight/...
cool high pressure will build into the region today with a very
dry air mass in place. Current forecast for sunny skies and
seasonable temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s look
As the area of high pressure shifts east to the coast
overnight...we expect high clouds to begin to increase late
tonight. Dry airmass combined with near calm winds will allow
temperatures to cool into the 30s.
Short term /Monday through Tuesday/...
surface high will be centered offshore on Monday. Isentropic
lift and moisture flux develops during the day Monday. Believe
any showers should hold off until late in the day as moisture
shallow and lift weak. Mid level short waves in southwest flow
aloft Monday night may lead to an increase in showers although
large spread in pop guidance. Thunderstorm threat appears
limited due to lack of instability. Model differences Tuesday
with European model (ecmwf) drier than GFS. Focus for showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday and Tuesday night may focus north of the area where warm
front sets up...but air mass likely moderately unstable in the
afternoon. Ensembles supports low chance pops and warm
Long term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
a deep late winter upper trough digs into the plains states on
Wednesday and progresses into the northeast and mid Atlantic by the
end of the week. A powerful cold front is forecast to sweep across
the southeast U.S. Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Expect
showers and thunderstorms ahead of and with the front Wednesday into
Thursday morning. Canadian high pressure will build into the
eastern U.S. Behind this system Thursday afternoon into next
weekend. Temperatures will start out above climo for early March
and then drop to near or below climo by the end of the week.
Aviation /15z Sunday through Thursday/...
high confidence in VFR conditions through the taf period.
High pressure continues building into the area today will move
offshore tonight. Dry airmass with clear skies today. Could see
high level clouds increase late tonight as the area of high
pressure moves offshore. Light northerly winds today becoming
light and variable during the afternoon. No fog expected
tonight given dry airmass.
Extended aviation outlook...periods of MVFR and/or IFR
restrictions possible Monday night through Thursday morning as
moisture returns to the region. A cold front will cross the
area Wednesday night.