Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kcae 181042
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
642 am EDT Wed Oct 18 2017
high pressure will remain over the area during the rest of the
week. It will remain dry with a warming trend as the air mass
modifies. Moisture will return early next week ahead of a cold
front. This will result in a chance of showers.
Near term /through tonight/...
a dry will remain over the area with surface ridge extending
from the mid Atlantic southwest across the Carolinas into
Georgia. Continued weak cold advection today expect high
temperatures to be similar to yesterday although cooler start
to the day. Highs mainly in the low 70s. More favorable
radiational cooling conditions tonight with lighter winds in the
boundary layer. Patchy frost may be possible especially in the
Piedmont and sheltered areas.
Short term /Thursday through Friday/...
surface and upper ridge across the eastern Continental U.S. Through
Friday. Temperatures will gradually warm to above seasonal
normals by Friday. Skies will remain clear with beautiful fall
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
upper level trough will move into the plains. The eastern Continental U.S.
Ridge will shift off the coast resulting in a slow increase in
moisture across the region over the weekend. Models indicate a
possible cut-off low along the Gulf Coast region by Monday with
moisture increasing across the southeastern states ahead of
frontal boundary in the Tennessee River valley. Large spread in
the ensemble pop guidance but support for at least chance pops
Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures above normal over the weekend
with near normal late in the period.
Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR conditions through the taf period.
Satellite imagery shows clear skies across the terminals with
light and variable winds. High pressure and dry air will remain
in control of the region through the taf period. Winds by mid
morning will become northeasterly at 8 knots or less through
the evening hours...then return to light and variable from 23z
through the end of the period. With dry air over the region fog
is not expected.
Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts to aviation