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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
631 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Upper-level high pressure will remain centered over the Mid
Atlantic region through early next week, then weaken mid to late
next week. A weak surface trough will provide a slight chance of
showers or a possible thunderstorm this afternoon across the
northern areas of South Carolina. An upper level disturbance will
provide a chance of showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and
evening, mainly southern and eastern areas. As the upper ridge
weakens next week, an area of low pressure, possibly tropical, and
associated moisture, could influence our weather. However,
considerable uncertainties still exist with this system.


Main upper ridge remains centered off to the northeast of the
region. Another weak lee-side trough is expected to redevelop
again this afternoon across the Piedmont and western/northern
portions of the Midlands. With surface winds generally out of the
east to southeast through the day, the region will continue to see
an increase in low-level moisture from the Atlantic. Models show a
weak shortwave rotating around the upper ridge, and this should
approach the northern cwa later in the afternoon and into the
early evening. Best chance for isolated to scattered convection
will remain across the north closer to the shortwave. Another warm
day will be on tap. Considering most areas reached the middle to
upper 90s yesterday, and with little change in the pattern, would
expect similar highs once again this afternoon. Guidance giving
readings in the middle 90s, and will follow closely.


The center of upper level high pressure will slowly shift off of the
Mid Atlantic coast on Sunday. An upper shortwave rotating through
the upper high will shift west into our region late Sunday.
Associated lift plus some additional low level moistening will
provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly S/E FA.
Above normal high temperatures are forecast on Sunday, in the
lower 90s.


Upper level high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic states will break
down on Monday. An upper ridge will take shape over the central
US by mid week while a broad upper trough carves out over the
Great Lakes and Northeast. Uncertainty remains high regarding how the
disturbance currently located near the Bahamas will affect the
forecast next week. Given such great uncertainty, have made few
changes to current forecast and have continued with mainly chance
pops. Temperatures through the period are forecast near to
slightly above normal with highs generally in the lower 90s.


VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 24 hour taf period.

Skies will remain partly cloudy this morning, with a few areas of
broken clouds possible. Ceilings remain vfr. Confidence in any
morning fog is low across the region. As for any convection, the
greatest potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms appears
to remain north of the terminals during the afternoon, so have not
mentioned any precip in any of the tafs. Winds light this morning,
becoming more easterly late morning through the afternoon and
evening hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There may be stratus and fog
associated with low-level moisture in an onshore flow during the
early morning hours late in the weekend and early next week.





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