Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus62 kcae 131351 
afdcae

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
851 am EST Wed Dec 13 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure and reinforcing cold air will be moving into the
region today. A dry front will cross the area Thursday followed
by high pressure Friday and Saturday. Unsettled weather will
return early next week.

&&

Near term /through tonight/...
northwesterly flow aloft will continue. A cool and quite dry
airmass will remain across our region, with precipitable water
values only around 0.2-0.3 inches, with surface dewpoints in the
teens today. A strong area of low pressure will track east
across the Midwest and into the NE US. An increasing pressure
gradient between the low to our north, and high pressure to our
south, will lead to increasing SW winds this afternoon and
tonight. Strong low level jet tonight combined with relatively
warmer lake water temperatures compared to air temps, may
provide breezy conditions on area lakes. SW direction and weak
warm advection usually not as favorbale to strong wind gusts on
area lakes as compared to a west to northwest direction and cold
advection scenarios. However, the strength of the low level jet
provides concern for frequent gusts on area lakes around 25
knots. A lake Wind Advisory will be considered for tonight.

&&

Short term /Thursday through Thursday night/...
dry conditions will continue through the short term period. High
pressure will be moving south of the region tonight into
Thursday. Models still showing a strong clipper system remaining
north of the area as it crosses the Ohio Valley to the mid-Atlantic
coast by Thursday morning. This system will be able to push
another dry cold front into the region Thursday night.
Moderating temperatures tonight into Thursday. Overnight lows
remain at or above freezing in most areas, and daytime highs on
Thursday climb into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Thursday night will moderate slightly more as Gulf moisture
returns northward while low pressure digs into the mid MS
valley. Lows in the middle to upper 30s. Thursday night still
looks dry.

&&

Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
dry weather now expected into the weekend with high pressure
moving across the region. Longer range models indicate a return
of moisture by Sunday ahead of the next system. By Sunday the
high pressure will move away from the region as the next low
pressure system develops over the Southern Plains region and
Ushers Gulf moisture northward. Models differ slightly with
timing and intensity of this system. They do agree on the
chance for rain returning to the forecast area Sunday afternoon
through Monday or Tuesday. This will depend on where the surface
front associated with that system ends up stalling out. Temperatures
through the long term will be below normal Friday and Saturday
with near normal for Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

Aviation /14z Wednesday through Sunday/...
VFR with a very dry airmass in place. Only concern is wind. A
strong area of low pressure will track east across the Midwest
and into the NE US through tonight. An increasing pressure
gradient between the low to our north, and high pressure to our
south, will lead to increasing SW winds this afternoon and
tonight, with a strong low level jet expected tonight. Will
indicate low level wind shear.

Extended aviation outlook...no significant impacts expected.

&&

Cae watches/warnings/advisories...
Georgia...none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations