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afdbyz

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Billings Montana
834 PM MDT Mon may 22 2017

Update...
north-S oriented jet streak and associated streamwise vorticity
continued to push S through the central part of the region this
evening, per water vapor imagery. With loss of diurnal heating,
precipitation has all but ended, with just a few showers over the
Red Lodge foothills and over Fallon County. Have updated pops
thru 06z to show this decreasing trend. Also updated sky cover
through the night to trend with recent satellite observations and
superblend. Temperatures and winds were in good shape. Arthur

&&

Short term...valid for Tue and Wed...

Band of showers continue to move north to south through the
region...ahead of approaching ridge. All activity appears to be
fairly low topped at this time, but will certainly bear watching.
Best chance for any stronger storms should be in the east this
evening as rear entrance of jet streak slides through the region.
That said, conditions will be cooling, so chances fore stronger
storms should be fairly low.

An upper level ridge moving into the region tonight and persists
over the region into Wednesday morning. Expect the warm and dry
conditions through this period. By Wednesday morning the upper
level low pressure system is over British Columbia and slowly
shifting eastward. Flow turns southwest over the County Warning Area and the low
begins radiating waves through the region...bringing another
chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Did raise pops a bit with this system, based on
good agreement of models bringing energy across the region.
Timing of this energy points to a very warm day across much of
the region, as prefrontal warming helps drive temps to around 80
in most of the area. Aag

Long term...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...sun...Mon...

A fairly quiet extended forecast on tap. Upper low stays quasi-
stationary to the northeast through most of the extended and
will continue to spin weak energy and northerly flow through the
area. This will keep isolated to scattered showers and aft/eve
thunderstorms in the forecast. But none of this activity looks
impressive with the Gulf of Mexico moisture blocked to the south
cutting of strong storm potential. Winds will be gusty at times
through the extended, especially into Thursday, as northerly flow
will keep atmosphere mixed. Temperatures will stay moderated under
the northerly flow regime which will help keep snowmelt in check
and limit any hydrology problems after a warm Tuesday and
Wednesday. Chambers



&&

Aviation...

Clouds will continue to decrease this evening leaving a mostly
clear night. VFR conditions should hold through the night with
light winds. Twh
&&

Preliminary point temp/pops...

Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat sun Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
bil 043/074 051/077 046/063 043/063 044/067 045/072 047/075
00/u 03/T 23/T 33/T 32/T 22/T 21/b
lvm 037/074 047/071 039/059 037/060 036/064 038/070 039/074
10/u 02/T 24/T 45/T 43/T 22/T 22/T
hdn 041/073 047/083 045/065 042/065 043/068 043/072 045/076
00/u 03/T 23/T 33/T 22/T 22/T 21/b
mls 042/072 049/080 047/065 043/067 044/068 045/072 047/075
10/u 04/T 32/west 11/b 22/T 21/b 11/b
4bq 041/069 045/082 044/065 041/065 043/066 043/070 045/072
10/u 02/T 31/b 11/b 22/T 21/b 12/T
bhk 038/066 042/075 042/062 039/064 040/065 040/068 042/069
20/u 02/T 61/north 11/b 22/T 21/b 12/T
shr 037/068 042/079 041/061 039/060 040/061 039/067 041/071
10/u 02/T 22/T 34/T 33/T 32/T 21/b

&&

Byz watches/warnings/advisories...
Montana...none.
Wyoming...none.

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