Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kbyz 132219
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
319 PM MST Wed Dec 13 2017
Short term...valid for Thu and Fri...
Short wave in northwest flow moving across our region at this time
producing some wintry weather over our western zones. Roads appear
mostly wet to slushy on webcams, but visibility has been under a
mile at times. Forcing with this system dives south and east
rather quickly this evening and precip should diminish by 8 PM.
Total accumulations should only be an inch or two on grassy
surfaces. We should see at least partial clearing later tonight.
For Thursday, some weak perturbations in the northerly flow aloft
may produce some light snow over our far eastern border counties.
Otherwise we do not anticipate any impacts. Temps will remain
above seasonal norms with some brisk wind at times yet again.
Friday we are looking for winds to increase Thursday night into
Friday in our gap locations. We are anticipating the need for a
Wind Advisory unless we see a significant change in any future
proggs. We should see warmer temps again Friday ahead of more
short wave energy that is on track to affect our County Warning Area by Friday
night. Split trough moves over our region and produces areas of
rain and snow. This may set up a decent band from northwest to southeast as we
head into Saturday morning. Exact placement of the band is always
difficult, but could certainly affect Billings and nearby areas.
Long term...valid for Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...
Some pops will linger as the ridge crasher exits the area
Saturday, mainly limited to the higher elevations. Winds are going
going to increase as the wave crashes across much of the area.
Gusts will be as high 25 to 35 mph. Sunday will be cooler but
generally dry. Models still have increasing uncertainty going
into next week as a pattern change starts to work into the the
northern rockies. There is a chance for some precip into Tuesday
as a baroclinic zone across the area as some cooler air pushes
down from Canada. The precip will be highly dependent on where
this zone setups. Later in the week still looks colder with the
GFS still much colder than the European model (ecmwf). The ec is still not as
strong with the wave coming down, thus is not as cold. This will
continue to be monitored. Reimer
scattered rain/snow showers will continue around the western
mountains and foothills though around 03z. Some local MVFR to IFR
conditions are possible near precipitation areas along with
mountain obscuration expected through the evening. Otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail. Reimer
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Thu Fri Sat sun Mon Tue Wed
bil 030/045 031/053 030/040 022/042 029/045 026/044 029/045
20/u 00/b 44/west 10/u 12/west 22/west 22/west
lvm 027/043 030/046 028/037 017/039 028/042 028/043 032/045
30/north 00/north 54/west 11/b 12/west 22/west 22/west
hdn 028/043 026/054 030/041 021/043 027/046 025/043 026/047
21/b 00/b 54/west 10/u 12/west 22/west 22/west
mls 028/038 024/053 030/041 022/043 028/043 025/041 025/041
21/north 10/b 42/j 11/u 12/west 22/west 24/west
4bq 029/037 024/053 029/040 022/042 027/045 025/042 025/045
32/j 00/b 42/west 11/b 12/west 22/west 22/west
bhk 026/033 021/049 027/038 022/040 026/041 023/039 023/037
43/j 10/b 32/j 11/b 12/west 11/east 24/west
shr 025/040 021/053 028/039 018/041 023/047 021/044 025/047
21/north 00/u 46/west 21/u 11/b 22/j 12/j