Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kbyz 232115
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
315 PM MDT Fri Jun 23 2017
Short term...valid for Sat and sun...
A pair of upper lows over southern Canada will continue to
provide an cyclonic flow aloft across our forecast area through
the weekend. At the same time, a strong jet stream overhead will
continue to produce gusty northwest winds for areas east of
Billings especially toward Miles City and areas east and south.
These breezy conditions are expected to subside late this evening.
Skies will become mostly clear after sunset with dry conditions
prevailing through tonight. With the lighter winds and clear
skies, overnight lows again will be quite cool for this time of
year with a near record low possible for Miles City.
The jet stream will begin to slowly shift east Saturday and
Sunday as high pressure ridging begins to build over the state. A
northwest flow aloft will continue but heights will be rising
allowing for warmer temperatures to return. Conditions look to be
dry for the weekend with the exception of a slight chance for a
thunderstorm near the higher terrain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening. Sunday will see mostly sunny skies and temperatures
closer to normal for this time of year. Highs on Saturday will be
in the lower to middle 70s with upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday.
Long term...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
Models have come in line through the middle of next week, but
diverge from there. The consensus was pointing to an upper low
moving across southern Canada and flattening an upper ridge that
develops Monday. This flattening process will take place Tuesday
and Wednesday and allow a cold front to drive through the area.
Ahead of this front, it will be very warm with highs reaching the
lower 90s for many locations Monday and again possibly on Tuesday.
Increasing shortwave influx on Monday and Tuesday, along with the
cold frontal passage on Tuesday, will translate into an
increasing thunderstorm threat for both those days. Given the
rapidly drying, to existing drying state out there, this could
pose concern for fire weather. The GFS has backed off on the very
cool weather pattern advertised for Wednesday through Friday of
next week and followed more of a European model (ecmwf) solution. The forecast for
that time frame still looks cooler and more unsettled, with lower
heights and cyclonic flow, just not as cool as previous GFS runs.
Skies will be partly to mostly sunny across the forecast area
with the exception across the far east toward the Dakota borders
where partly to mostly cloudy skies will be common today. Expect
gusty northwest winds around 25 kts mainly along and east of a
Forsyth- kshr line. No major aviation hazards are expected today
with VFR conditions prevailing. Hooley
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Sat sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
bil 048/075 050/081 055/092 061/088 057/082 055/078 054/079
01/b 10/u 00/u 23/T 22/T 23/T 33/T
lvm 039/073 042/081 048/089 054/083 049/077 046/075 046/076
01/u 00/u 01/u 24/T 23/T 33/T 23/T
hdn 046/076 048/083 053/094 061/091 057/084 054/080 054/081
01/b 10/u 00/u 23/T 22/T 23/T 33/T
mls 044/076 047/080 052/092 063/092 060/086 056/081 054/081
00/u 00/u 00/u 23/T 32/T 23/T 33/T
4bq 044/074 046/079 050/091 060/091 058/085 055/080 054/080
00/u 00/u 00/u 02/T 32/T 23/T 33/T
bhk 039/071 042/076 046/086 057/089 057/083 053/077 050/077
00/u 00/u 00/u 02/T 22/T 23/T 32/T
shr 043/071 044/078 048/089 056/087 053/081 050/077 050/077
01/b 00/u 00/u 22/T 23/T 34/T 33/T