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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana
943 am MDT Thu Oct 20 2016


No updates were needed this morning as everything looks on track. The
biggest concern through today will be the winds in our foothill
locations around Livingston, Big Timber, and Nye. Livingston hit a
50 mph wind gust this morning and will continue to see gusts
around 50 to 55 mph there through the afternoon. Wind gusts are
still forecast to lessen after sunset as pressure rises begin to
move in over the plains. The plains will see breezy conditions but
wind gusts will remain lower and around 20 to 30 mph this
afternoon. Wind gusts out east around 15 to 25 mph can be expected
east of Colstrip and Forsyth. No rain is expected this afternoon. Dobbs


Short term...valid for tdy and Fri...

Forecast is pretty quiet for the next few days outside of some
windy conditions over the western foothills. Another strong
Pacific jet streak is moving on-shore Oregon/Washington and will
push into the area this afternoon/evening. This strong zonal flow
aloft will induce Lee side trofing resulting in gusty winds
across the western foothills today through tonight. Current
guidance continues to suggest winds will stay predominantly under
advisory threshold for the Livingston and Nye, with the strongest
winds likely from late afternoon through this evening. Foothills
winds will back off as the jet stream moves northward relaxing the
surface pressure gradient across the area during the day Friday.
A good flux of mid level moisture will move through the area the
next few days with plenty of cloud cover moving through. Downslope
winds will keep a lid on precipitation with the only mentionable chance
being overnight into Friday morning across northern zones and even
that would only amount to a period of sprinkles for the most part.
Otherwise forecast looks dry heading into the weekend. Westerly
flow will also allow temperatures to warm up into the 55 to 65
degree range today, and well into the 60s tomorrow. Breezy
conditions tonight will keep temperatures mild overnight
especially in the foothills. Chambers

Long term...valid for Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Models are in good agreement through the extended period. A large
upper low and trough will be situated off the Pacific northwest
coast Saturday into the middle of next week. As a result, a zonal
flow aloft Saturday will give way to high pressure ridging
building across the forecast area Sunday into next week. A weak
Pacific front will move across the area Saturday afternoon/evening
but no precipitation is expected. The high pressure ridge axis
shifts east Monday allowing for a southwest flow aloft to prevail
through the middle of next week. Pieces of energy within the flow
will allow for shower chances to return to the mountains Monday
and Tuesday and include the lower elevations Wednesday into
Thursday. Overall, no strong storm systems are expected through
the period with temperatures expected to be slightly above normal.


Variable high level clouds are expected over the forecast area
today. Strong southwest winds will continue at klvm through the
day and into the evening with gusts to 45 kts at times. Bt

Preliminary point temp/pops...

Tdy Fri Sat sun Mon Tue Wed
bil 059 046/065 042/063 040/063 044/065 043/062 041/056
0/b 10/b 01/b 00/b 01/b 11/b 12/west
lvm 057 045/064 039/061 038/063 041/063 039/060 039/055
0/north 10/b 01/b 10/b 02/west 11/b 22/west
hdn 061 041/067 039/066 039/064 041/066 041/063 040/058
0/b 11/b 00/u 00/b 01/b 11/b 12/west
mls 060 040/064 040/064 039/062 041/065 042/062 041/057
0/b 21/b 00/u 00/b 00/b 11/b 11/b
4bq 060 036/066 038/068 039/066 040/069 042/065 040/060
0/b 11/b 00/u 00/u 00/b 11/u 10/b
bhk 057 037/062 037/064 035/059 037/063 040/061 039/056
0/b 11/b 00/b 00/u 00/b 11/b 11/b
shr 059 035/065 036/066 036/065 039/067 039/063 037/057
0/b 00/u 00/b 00/b 00/b 11/b 11/b


Byz watches/warnings/advisories...



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