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Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Billings Montana
854 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016


Forecast is on track for tonight and no changes were made to this
update. Generally clear skies through most of the night will
allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s across most of
the region. Cold front which passed through today with some gusty
winds has moved over the Dakotas. Winds have relaxed in response
to the decreasing pressure gradient and will remain light and
variable into Sunday. Walsh


Short term...valid for sun and Mon...

Pacific cold front was sweeping across the area this afternoon.
Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph or greater have been found
along and just behind the frontal passage. Generally quiet weather
can be expected through Sunday as ridging builds back over the
region. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 50s to
60s even with heights building aloft due to easterly flow near
the surface.

Heading into Monday, the ridge axis begins to shift off to the
east putting the northern rockies under southwest flow aloft.
Energy and moisture embedded in the southwest flow may bring a
shower or two to the Southwest Mountains Monday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm into the 60s to near 70 degrees on Monday. Stp

Long term...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Southwest flow remains over the area on Tuesday with energy and
moisture embedded in the flow progged to move over the area. Best
chance for shower activity looks to be over the higher terrain,
with perhaps a few showers moving onto the plains during Tuesday
night as weak isentropic lift advects over the area. Ridging
builds back over the region for Wednesday bringing mainly dry
conditions and warming temperatures.

Models diverge Thursday and beyond as they struggle with
placement and timing differences. The European model (ecmwf) keeps ridging over
the area on Thursday while the GFS brings a weak shortwave through
the region helping to flatten ridging in place. Models then show a
disturbance moving through the northern rockies on Friday bringing
precipitation chances to the area. GFS is wetter and more bullish
than the European model (ecmwf). Ridging then looks to build back over the area for
Saturday. High temperatures will remain above normal through much
of the long term with the warmest temperatures expected on
Thursday as heights build aloft out ahead of the disturbance for
Friday. Highs in the lower 70s are possible for Thursday.
Temperatures then look to cool Friday and Saturday into the lower
60s. Stp



VFR conditions with scattered high clouds are expected through
Sunday. Jkl


Preliminary point temp/pops...

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
bil 037/061 042/069 046/067 045/065 046/070 045/061 041/059
00/b 01/b 11/b 10/b 11/b 11/b 21/b
lvm 035/063 041/068 044/064 042/066 044/068 041/059 038/059
00/b 01/north 12/west 21/b 11/b 22/west 32/west
hdn 036/064 039/071 043/070 043/067 042/070 043/062 040/060
00/b 00/b 11/b 10/b 11/b 11/b 21/b
mls 036/060 038/065 042/067 043/065 042/067 043/059 038/055
00/u 00/b 11/b 10/b 00/b 02/west 21/b
4bq 036/063 038/070 042/069 042/066 041/070 043/062 040/059
00/u 00/b 01/b 10/u 00/b 01/b 21/b
bhk 033/057 035/060 038/063 040/063 038/066 040/058 035/051
00/u 00/b 01/b 10/u 00/b 01/b 21/b
shr 033/064 039/069 042/068 039/067 039/071 040/062 036/060
00/b 00/b 11/b 10/u 10/b 11/b 21/b


Byz watches/warnings/advisories...



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