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fxus65 kbyz 291455 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Billings Montana
855 am MDT Mon may 29 2017

upper level ridge asserting its influence over the region with a
drier and more stable airmass moving into Montana. Still will see
mountain cumulus development and a stray shower or thunderstorm
develop over the high terrin. No updates. Borsum


Short term...valid for tdy and Tue...

A quiet weather pattern in general expected for the next couple
of days across the forecast area. The upper low responsible for
the unsettled cyclonic flow aloft across the forecast area the
past several days will finally shift further east across the Great
Lakes today into Tuesday. This will allow the upper level ridge
and associated axis that has been over the Pacific northwest the
past several days to slowly shift east over Montana. As a result,
expect rising heights today into Tuesday as the ridge axis
positions itself over the state by Tuesday. Precipitation chances
will diminish across the plains with just a slight chance for a
shower or thunderstorm over the mountains and adjacent foothills
over the next couple of days. Temperatures will continue to warm
several degrees each day with readings above normal by Tuesday
when middle 70s will be common for most areas across the lower
elevations. Hooley

Long term...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...sun...

Medium range models have come into much better alignment for late
in the week and into next weekend. The overall pattern looks
quite warm with limited precipitation chances. An upper ridge will
slide into the forecast area mid week with the ridge axis over
central Montana Wednesday night. This will keep the area mainly
dry Wednesday and Wednesday night. The ridge axis slides east for
Thursday as a northern stream shortwave trough moves through. This
will generate a few showers and thundestorms. Shear increases
during this time, but cape does not look overly high. Could have a
few stronger storms though Thursday afternoon and evening with
increasing shear. Zonal flow with weak embedded waves will create
some instability for Friday and will keep low pops going then.
Heights try to build back into the area Saturday and Sunday as an
upper trough works into the Pacific northwest.

Temperatures will steadily warm Wednesday and Thursday, with the
warmest day being Thursday. Added clouds on Thursday may limit
some of the warming, but latest guidance was indicating highs in
the mid to upper 80s were definitely reachable. Slightly cooler
readings for Friday through next weekend, but should remain above
seasonal levels with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.
With the above normal temperatures, an increase in snowmelt is
expected, causing flows to increase on area waterways by the end
of the week. Will continue to monitor this closely as the week
progresses. Twh



Today will be less active with showers and thundestorms. Most
locations will be dry with just a few cumulus clouds developing
late morning into early afternoon. The best chance of a shower
will be over the high country and along the foothills. So, VFR
conditions are expected today. Winds will become a little gusty
this afternoon, with some gusts to 22kts possible at kmls. Twh


Preliminary point temp/pops...

Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat sun
bil 073 047/077 050/085 056/086 056/080 053/080 052/080
1/u 10/u 01/u 11/b 22/T 21/b 12/T
lvm 073 041/076 045/083 049/081 049/076 044/077 042/077
1/u 11/u 11/u 13/T 23/T 21/u 12/T
hdn 073 042/077 048/085 052/089 053/081 051/081 050/082
0/u 00/u 01/u 11/u 23/T 21/b 12/T
mls 071 042/074 047/085 056/090 058/081 052/081 052/081
0/u 00/u 00/u 01/u 33/T 21/b 11/b
4bq 069 042/073 045/085 053/089 055/080 051/079 050/079
0/u 00/u 00/u 01/u 23/T 21/b 12/T
bhk 065 038/069 041/079 049/085 055/077 050/076 048/076
0/u 00/u 00/u 01/u 34/T 31/b 12/T
shr 068 041/073 044/082 048/085 051/078 047/078 046/077
1/u 11/u 11/u 11/u 23/T 21/b 12/T


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