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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Billings Montana
935 am MDT Sat Oct 22 2016


Weak disturbance was moving across northern Montana this morning
dragging an associated cold front across the region. Most of the
energy and precipitation associated with the disturbance will stay
north of the area, but cannot rule out a light sprinkle or two
across northern areas this morning. Expect some gusty northwest
winds around 30 mph along and behind the front as it crosses the
area today. Adjusted winds and sky cover to current trends,
otherwise the rest of the forecast remains on track. The previous
forecast discussion is below. Stp


Short term...valid for tdy and sun...

Quiet weather for the most part still on track across the
forecast area this weekend. High pressure ridging gets flattened
somewhat today as an upper level disturbance moves across the
northern half of the state. This will sweep a Pacific cold front
across the area late this morning into early this afternoon.
Expect some gusty northwest winds around 30 mph to usher in behind
the front, especially east of Billings. Models keep the energy
with the disturbance north of our forecast area across north
central and northeast Montana. As such, I have removed the slight
shower chance that was across Wheatland County for today.

High pressure ridging will begin to build across the northern
rockies once again tonight and especially during the day Sunday.
Afternoon temperatures today will be in the lower to middle 60s.
Although heights will be rising Sunday, 850mb temperatures behind
today's front will be slightly cooler resulting in highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s for most areas across the lower elevations
on Sunday. Hooley

Long term...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...

Monday an upper level ridge exists the area to the east and it is
replaced by southwesterly flow aloft which veers Tuesday with
a weaker ridge moving over the area on Wednesday. Shower activity
looks limited to the mountains Monday and Tuesday with the best
chance for high elevation moisture Tuesday as deeper moisture
moves over the area. Could be some shower activity along and north
of the Musselshell river Tuesday night as the approaching ridge
generates some weak isentropic lift. Not much boundary layer
change through the period so look for above normal temperatures
limited a bit by cloud cover and no periods of significant wind.

For Thursday and beyond there are timing and placement differences
amongs the European model (ecmwf) GFS and Canadian models with the ec being the
outlier. Generally favor a pattern which indicates southwest flow
aloft over the area on Thursday with dissipating energy over the
area on Friday followed weak ridging for Saturday. Models show a
push of moisture over the area Thursday night into Friday with
the weak ridging bringing drying for the first part of the
weekend. Have adjusted forecast to show some shower activity
moving through the region. Temperatures will be warmest Thursday
ahead of a disturbance on Friday which will cool temperatures from
upper 60s on Thursday to the lower 60s Friday and Saturday. Borsum



VFR conditions with cold front moving through the area late this
morning. This will allow for gusty northwest winds this afternoon
with peak gusts of 30kt over southeast Montana. Winds will become light
again this evening. Borsum


Preliminary point temp/pops...

Tdy sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
bil 065 040/062 044/068 045/067 045/066 046/069 044/058
0/b 00/b 01/b 11/b 11/b 11/b 11/b
lvm 063 035/065 042/067 042/065 043/065 044/066 041/058
0/u 00/b 01/north 12/west 21/b 11/b 22/west
hdn 064 037/065 039/071 042/068 042/067 042/070 042/059
0/u 00/b 00/b 11/b 11/b 11/b 11/b
mls 065 037/062 037/065 041/064 042/065 042/066 041/056
1/north 00/u 00/b 11/b 10/b 00/b 02/west
4bq 069 036/064 040/071 042/068 042/068 041/070 041/059
0/north 00/u 00/b 01/b 10/u 00/u 01/b
bhk 065 034/059 037/061 037/062 040/065 040/063 038/056
0/north 00/u 00/b 01/b 10/u 00/b 01/b
shr 068 033/065 038/069 042/067 039/067 040/070 039/059
0/u 00/b 00/b 11/b 11/u 11/b 11/b


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