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fxus65 kbyz 260205 

Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Billings Montana
705 PM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

updating to add a blowing Snow Advisory for the Big Timber area
where favorable pressure gradients are causing gusts to 50 mph at
6s0. Visibility has been as low as a quarter of a mile, and a call
to the sheriff early this evening revealed occasional whiteout
conditions. The models showed the gradient for strong winds
continuing into Sun. Morning. Based on the above, and reports
from the mtdot site, will have the advisory for the Livingston
area, northern Sweet Grass County, Stillwater County and the
beartooth foothills. Will describe the smaller affected area in
the statement. Adjusted winds accordingly and added areas of
blowing snow to the affected area. Also added low pops through 06z
to areas just east of kbil based on radar. Everything else was in
good shape. Arthur


Short term...valid for sun and Mon...

Scattered snow showers will continue across southeastern Montana
into the early evening as a trough axis continues to push across
eastern Montana. Winds this afternoon and evening will be gusty,
especially around Livingston, but should only gust as high as 40
to 45 mph. Once the wave moves past expect a brief period of
quiet weather across the area overnight ahead of the wave moving
off the Pacific. The majority of the the energy and moisture still
looks be north of the area. As this wave moves across the area
winds will shift to the northeast. While this will give some
upslope, moisture profiles do not show much of a dendritic growth
zone so have just chance pops in pretty much across the area.
Temperatures will be around normal. Reimer

Long term...valid for Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...

Models are in decent agreement through most of the extended
period but diverge by the end of next week into next weekend. A
fast northwest flow aloft will mostly prevail across the forecast
area. A few disturbances within the flow will bring periodic
chances for snow showers across the area. Timing of these
disturbances is difficult this far out given the progressive
nature of the upper flow. As a result, there will be a chance for
snow showers or a rain/snow shower mix almost everyday. As it
stands now, the main weather feature looks to be winds around the
Wednesday timeframe, as well as next Friday/Saturday. Lee-side
troughing looks to develop during these periods but latest
guidance has back off quite a bit on winds for Livingston next
Friday. The 00z run last night had 50kt sustained but has since
backed off to about 30kts for next Friday for Livingston. This is
a ways out and models will no doubt fluctuate with this. Look for
temperatures to be below normal through the period until late next
week when readings may warm slightly above normal. Hooley



VFR conditions prevail under persistent partly to mostly cloudy
skies, but showers are diminishing rapidly this evening. Gusty
west winds are impacting western zones...with gusts of 30 to 45
mph from Billings west, and as high as 50 mph in Big Timber.
Blowing snow has reduced ground visible to 1/4sm at times in and
around Big Timber, and may be having lesser impacts on surrounding
areas. Aag


Preliminary point temp/pops...

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
bil 019/033 019/030 017/033 016/038 023/037 027/049 031/047
12/j 22/j 22/j 12/west 33/west 11/east 22/west
lvm 015/029 010/028 011/027 011/034 024/036 026/046 030/045
23/j 36/j 33/j 22/j 33/j 21/north 22/west
hdn 018/037 017/033 016/037 016/041 021/038 023/050 029/049
01/b 12/j 22/j 11/b 33/west 11/b 12/west
mls 023/037 021/033 020/035 016/038 022/035 025/047 031/047
11/east 22/j 22/j 11/north 21/east 11/east 21/north
4bq 019/039 019/039 021/038 018/042 021/036 024/052 030/051
10/b 11/b 22/west 11/b 21/east 11/b 11/b
bhk 016/034 017/030 016/032 014/034 016/031 020/046 028/044
30/east 12/j 22/j 11/b 21/b 11/east 11/east
shr 010/032 011/033 012/033 012/036 018/036 021/049 027/046
10/b 11/b 12/j 21/b 33/j 11/b 12/west


Byz watches/warnings/advisories...
Montana...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 11 am MST Sunday for
zones 34-41-65-66.

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