Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kbyz 220942
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
242 am MST Wed Nov 22 2017
Short term...valid for tdy and Thu...
Minimal changes once again for the short term forecast period.
Mainly dry and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail through
the short term period, with near record highs possible on
Thanksgiving day. The only impacts to Holiday travel today and
Thursday are expected to be strong gusty winds for the Livingston
area and adjacent beartooth/absaroka foothills.
Upper level high pressure will build back into the region today
and prevail into Thursday, resulting in dry conditions and much
above normal temperatures. Surface pressure gradients remain
reasonably tight along east slopes of The Rockies as low pressure
will be situated over southern Canada with high pressure across
southwest Wyoming. This will support continued strong gusty winds
in Livingston and the nearby foothills. This pattern persists
into Thursday night, with strongest winds expected Thursday
afternoon and evening, following a slight lull during the day
today. Although winds will let up slightly today, they will still
be gusty, and approach 50 mph at times through the day.
Although mainly dry, a ripple in the flow will slide through the
region today, which will coincide with a period of good upper
level jet. Present moisture, a little additional Pacific moisture,
and a bit of a break in otherwise strong downslope flow, may allow
some shower development through central zones. Did expand coverage
area some, but kept pops on the low side. Additionally, some
Pacific moisture continue to stream into western mountains and
nearby foothills regions, resulting in a continued chance of snow
today. Another Pacific front moves across the forecast area
Thursday night, bringing an end to the Livingston area winds. The
front will also bring the likelihood for rain showers regionwide
overnight, as temps appear to remain warm enough to curtail any
chance of snow in lower elevations. Aag
Long term...valid for Fri...Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...
Medium range guidance in overall agreement into the extended.
Upper level ridging will dominate over the northern rockies Friday
through Sunday for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will also
remain above normal with highs well into the 50s and even some
60s for the warmest day on Sunday. The next Pacific system moves
across the region Monday into Tuesday. Models differing somewhat
in intensity and placement, but certainly looks unsettled and have
raised precipitation chances. This system has the potential to
pull in some colder air with an increasing threat for snowfall
across the region. Something to monitor as we get closer. Frieders
Gusty winds 40 to 50 kts will persist at klvm into Thursday.
VFR conditions will prevail across the entire region under upper
level ridging. Low level wind shear threat continues at kmls through mid morning.
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Tdy Thu Fri Sat sun Mon Tue
bil 061 042/066 041/053 031/054 038/061 038/050 031/042
2/west 00/north 61/north 00/b 10/north 13/r 21/b
lvm 059 047/068 038/047 029/051 039/058 036/045 026/038
2/west 10/north 61/north 01/north 11/north 24/o 31/north
hdn 062 038/069 039/055 028/054 034/062 034/052 028/042
2/west 00/b 41/north 00/u 10/b 13/r 31/b
mls 060 041/067 041/053 028/052 033/061 034/049 027/039
1/north 00/b 31/north 00/u 10/b 13/r 42/S
4bq 063 040/071 041/053 029/054 035/063 036/054 029/040
1/north 00/b 31/north 00/u 10/b 13/r 43/S
bhk 059 037/067 040/052 025/051 030/060 033/049 024/036
1/north 00/north 31/north 01/u 00/b 13/r 53/S
shr 063 036/067 038/052 027/054 033/062 033/052 026/042
2/west 00/b 21/north 00/u 00/b 03/r 21/north
Montana...Wind Advisory in effect until 11 PM MST Thursday for zones