Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kbyz 240854 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
254 am MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Short term...valid for tdy and Sat...

Today should be a quiet, dry day across Montana as a ridge builds
into the area. This will see temperatures warming into the upper
50s to lower 60s across the area. This afternoon a weak Lee-side
low will develop over eastern Montana. As it does, winds along the
southwestern foothills will increase. While the pressure gradient
will increase, it does not look like it will get strong enough to
create many issues, though a few gusts up to 50mph are possible.

Saturday the ridge will give way to another trough. A cold front
will move through during the morning which will lead to cooler
temperatures and scattered rain showers. Temperatures will remain
warm enough aloft that the majority of the precip will fall as
rain. However down along the Big Horn Mountains some additional
snow is possible. Precip chances will continue overnight as the
front stalls out and the main trough axis moves across the
northern rockies. Reimer

Long term...valid for sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Weather pattern will remain active through next week, with mostly
above normal temperatures and a chance of precip every couple

Sunday looks dry underneath building ridge aloft, after early
morning showers exit our East. Ridge axis will shift east by
Monday, allowing for increased shower chances in our west as next
Pacific trof moves inland and flow aloft backs to the southwest.
Best chance of precip will be late Monday night thru Tuesday as a
trof of uncertain magnitude moves thru the area. Models agree in a
split, with stronger forcing well to our south, but we could see a
period of upper diffluent flow with low level upslope winds. Will
keep highest pops in our south and east, with a surface inverted
trof across our east enhancing precip chances. Lower elevation
temps should stay warm enough to keep p-type as rain, though a mix
with wet snow is possible along the foothills above around 5 kft.
Expect drying from west to east Tuesday night.

After a brief dry period Wednesday, next opportunity for showers
will be Thursday and Friday as yet another Pacific trof moves
inland. This late-week system has a chance to be a little more
dynamic in our cwa, but there is obviously plenty of uncertainty
so far in advance, and as with the previous trof this one will
also split with stronger low eventually developing over the
southern Continental U.S.. in any event, have raised pops a bit to get them
above climatology for Thu/Fri.

Above normal temps will persist through most if not all of the
extended period, with highs mostly 50s to mid 60s. There is a
chance that next Friday could be a cooler day if we tap into a
Canadian airmass with clouds/precipitation. In fact, some
foothills wet snow is not out of the question as 850mb temps fall
to near zero.




Spotty valley fog W/ local MVFR or lower is possible along and
east of a kshr-kmls line early this morning. Otherwise, VFR flight
conditions will prevail across the region today and tonight. An
approaching Pacific disturbance will bring snow showers to the
western mountains late tonight, with obscurations likely. SW winds
will increase along the foothills with gusts of 30-45 kts at klvm
late this afternoon and evening. Jkl


Preliminary point temp/pops...

Tdy Sat sun Mon Tue Wed Thu
bil 063 043/055 036/057 038/061 039/054 037/061 039/057
0/u 13/west 41/b 01/b 33/west 11/b 22/west
lvm 057 038/051 030/054 033/057 033/052 032/060 035/052
0/north 24/west 51/b 13/west 44/west 11/b 33/west
hdn 063 042/056 034/059 035/064 037/056 034/063 036/061
0/u 03/west 31/b 01/b 33/west 21/u 22/west
mls 062 039/061 038/061 037/064 039/054 036/061 038/061
0/u 01/east 31/b 00/b 25/west 41/b 12/west
4bq 061 039/061 038/058 035/064 037/055 036/060 038/060
0/u 01/east 62/west 00/b 25/west 41/b 12/west
bhk 059 036/060 037/060 032/061 035/052 034/058 035/058
0/u 01/east 63/west 00/b 26/west 51/b 12/west
shr 060 040/055 033/055 032/063 036/053 034/061 035/060
0/u 04/west 62/west 01/b 34/west 21/u 22/west


Byz watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations