Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kbyz 181016
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
316 am MST Sat Nov 18 2017
Short term...valid for tdy and sun...
Heights build the next two days with backing flow. This will keep
the forecast dry this weekend. Also, temperatures will moderate
into Sunday with increased downslope flow. The main story will be
wind over the western foothills.
A strong surface pressure gradient is progged to develop tonight
as surface pressures fall over southwest Canada. The gradient
looks adequately tight, and local guidance tools indicate the
likelihood of gusts to 60 mph increases from Livingston to Nye
tonight. These strong winds are expected to continue through early
Monday, before a cold front sweeps through and takes the gradient
away. Winds should reach advisory criteria late this evening, and
decided to issue a Wind Advisory to run through Monday morning.
This strongest winds should be Sunday night.
The plains will experience some breezy conditions today and
Sunday as well, with some gusts to 30 mph. Highs today will be
seasonal, with readings reaching into the 50s on Sunday. Twh
Long term...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
Relatively minor changes for the extended forecast period, with
models reasonably over the past few runs.
Monday will be a warm and dry prefrontal day across the lower
elevations, with increasing clouds and snow over the high terrain
as Pacific trof. A cold front will move through the area Monday
night. This should reduce the winds along the foothills. The cold
front will also bring a quick chance for mountain snow, with rain
switching switching over to snow overnight on the plains.
Conditions will remain cool on Tuesday with highs lower 40s. Temps
will begin a warmup through Thanksgiving, as upper level ridging
redevelops Wednesday, and flow turns more zonal and downslope
flow returns Thursday. Highs in the 60s can be expected for
Thanksgiving day. A cold front will slide south through the region
Thursday night/Friday morning. Several shortwaves will slide
through the flow, bringing a chance of snow over the mountains,
but little to no chance into lower elevations with prevailing
high pressure. The next chance for precip for the lower elevations
will be late Thanksgiving night and into next Friday, as another
cold front crosses the region. Precip potential will linger into
Saturday, but will quickly shift south. This cold front will also
drop temps back to the 40s by Saturday. Aag
VFR conditions will prevail today. We do expect west-SW winds to
increase through the day at klvm with gusts of 40 to 50 kts late
tonight through Saturday. Aag
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Tdy sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
bil 044 027/050 033/052 025/040 034/058 042/061 039/052
0/north 00/north 02/west 22/west 22/west 11/b 22/west
lvm 043 027/047 035/048 028/045 038/056 042/057 039/048
0/north 00/north 03/west 33/west 32/west 22/west 22/west
hdn 046 023/052 029/053 024/041 029/059 037/063 036/053
0/north 00/u 01/east 12/west 11/east 11/b 22/west
mls 044 024/050 027/052 018/033 024/056 037/060 036/051
0/north 00/u 01/east 11/b 11/east 11/b 21/b
4bq 044 022/053 027/055 022/037 027/058 038/062 037/054
0/north 00/u 01/b 11/b 11/east 10/b 11/b
bhk 041 021/052 025/053 013/029 018/053 033/057 034/050
0/north 00/u 01/b 11/u 11/east 11/b 11/b
shr 044 019/052 025/056 024/043 028/058 034/060 034/053
0/u 00/u 01/east 11/b 12/j 11/b 12/west
Montana...Wind Advisory in effect from 8 PM this evening to noon MST
Monday for zones 65-66.