Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kbyz 282033
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
233 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017
Short term...valid for Thu and Fri...
Scattered thunderstorms have developed and have mostly been
producing some decent rainfall. Additionally, some hail has likely
been produced with these storms. With the slightly higher dewpoints
across the area, winds there have not been as much of issue.
However some outflows have produced winds around 40 mph. Storms
have also been moving at a decent speed, so even with the
efficient rainfall production, any flood concerns should be
minimal. This convection will continue to move east through the
evening as a upper level low moves across northern Montana.
Going into tomorrow the area will be in northwest flow. This will
keep some scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area.
Shear and instability is much lower tomorrow, so not expecting
the any real organized convection. Friday should be dry as heights
begin to rise across the area. Temperatures both days will
generally be seasonable. Reimer
Long term...valid for Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...
Weak frontal passage over the weekend will bring slight chance
pops but nothing really significant. Other than that, the forecast
is pretty dry through the beginning of next week. Temperatures
should climb from the upper 80s this weekend to the mid 90s by
Monday and Tuesday. Conditions will steadily dry out as we head
into next week with the increasing temperatures and little rain.
Models still disagree on the timing of a front that moves through
some time early next week, and stronger winds aren't in the
forecast at this time but this is something we will be watching
closely in subsequent updates. As we head into this more Summer-
like pattern around the Holiday weekend we begin to become more
concerned with wildfire starts. Walsh
Scattered thunderstorms already popping up near lvm, bil, and shr.
Expect storms to move into mls later this afternoon into the early
evening. Aside from brief thunderstorm impacts this afternoon and
early evening conditions should remain VFR through the period.
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Thu Fri Sat sun Mon Tue Wed
bil 056/068 050/078 055/086 059/087 060/093 061/091 061/088
35/T 21/b 11/u 21/b 00/u 10/u 10/u
lvm 049/065 042/074 046/083 050/084 051/088 052/087 051/085
25/T 21/u 12/T 21/b 00/u 11/u 00/u
hdn 055/073 050/079 054/088 058/089 058/094 060/094 060/091
34/T 21/b 11/u 21/b 00/u 00/u 10/u
mls 057/076 051/077 055/088 060/090 062/095 064/093 064/090
32/T 21/u 11/u 21/b 10/u 10/u 00/u
4bq 055/076 050/075 052/086 058/088 059/091 061/092 062/089
54/T 20/b 11/u 12/T 10/u 00/u 10/u
bhk 056/074 048/072 048/083 054/086 057/090 061/090 060/088
33/T 21/b 11/u 12/T 21/u 00/u 10/u
shr 052/065 047/072 048/083 053/085 053/089 054/088 056/087
45/T 31/b 12/T 12/T 10/u 01/u 11/u