Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kbyz 221004
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
304 am MST Mon Jan 22 2018
Short term...valid for tdy and Tue...
So far overnight the winds around Livingston have stayed 50 to 55
mph, and should be around the peak. As the shortwave that is
moving through western Montana, moves into the Livingston area
towards daybreak, the instability should start to decrease wind
speeds. The high resolution models, and too a lesser extend the
global models, the majority of the precip will be over the
mountains with the plains being dry. There are some hints at some
isolated development from Billings south. Have kept the low pops
in for these areas.
Going into Tuesday things will be dry outside a chance in the high
mountains. Some weak ridging will work back in. Temperatures will
still be around normals. Overnight, winds around the Livingston
and Nye will be increasing again. However the mid-level flow is
stronger with this next round. As such conditions are looking
better for a potential Wind Advisory. Reimer
Long term...valid for Wed...Thu...Fri...Sat...sun...
Ridging moves in for Wednesday and leeside troughing increases
through the day which will enhance gap flow winds. Peak of the
winds likely Wednesday night before eastward movement of the ridge
on Thursday allows a southwest flow aloft to reach the area.
Trough developing the southwest flow arrives Thursday night with
models indicating the bulk of the energy remains to the north of
the region that is a fairly dry solution for the forecast area.
Best chances for precipitation will be Thursday afternoon and
evening night along and just behind a cold front.
High pressure ridging then builds next weekend but current progs
are a little slower and less amplified with the ridge. This keeps
the warmup a little slower and looks to decrease the strength of
any gap flow winds that develop. Borsum
Clouds and mountain showers moving into the western half of the
area from west to east this morning. Expect most of the
restrictions due to the showers to be over the mountains but klvm
could see MVFR conditions. Light showers can be expected across
central areas this afternoon and early evening but expect VFR to
prevail. Winds will be strong along the foothills until early
afternoon with klvm seeing gusts to 45kts. Borsum
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat sun
bil 037 020/036 019/043 028/044 021/034 017/032 018/037
2/o 10/u 00/b 01/b 22/j 21/b 11/east
lvm 033 018/034 021/043 029/041 016/032 015/032 021/041
4/S 31/north 01/north 13/west 33/j 21/north 22/j
hdn 035 018/035 013/040 021/043 017/034 013/030 011/035
2/S 20/u 00/b 01/b 32/j 21/b 11/b
mls 033 018/030 011/035 018/039 019/031 012/022 008/029
2/S 10/u 00/b 01/b 11/b 21/b 11/b
4bq 037 022/034 014/040 023/043 022/033 016/027 013/034
1/u 20/u 00/b 00/b 11/north 21/b 11/b
bhk 033 018/031 012/038 021/043 021/032 012/023 007/029
0/u 00/u 00/b 00/b 11/b 22/j 11/b
shr 034 017/034 012/042 023/043 018/031 013/029 012/036
2/S 20/u 00/b 00/b 33/j 21/b 11/b