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Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Billings Montana
843 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

dirty ridge (high pressure with considerable high level clouds) prevails
over region this evening. Made a few tweaks to wind and sky, but
mainly just cosmetic adjustments. It should be an uneventful and
relatively mild night ahead. Local wind study tools suggest winds
in Livingston area will behave themselves (less than 15% chance of
hitting advisory level) and current pressure gradient trends
support this. Bt


Short term...valid for Thu and Fri...

Ridge aloft today will give way to stronger moist southwest flow
aloft overnight into tomorrow. This stronger downslope flow and
cloud cover associated with the Pacific moisture plume will hold
temperatures up tonight and push highs well into the 70s on
Thursday. Tonights lows will stay in the lower 50s for elevated
locations across the plains, though river valleys will probably
make the lower 40s. Highs tomorrow will be a bit dependent on
cloud cover with mix Downs supporting upper 70s and guidance
firmly in the mid 70s most areas. Leaned toward guidance but can't
rule out a stray 80 degree reading if cloud cover and winds work
out just right. Records for tomorrow are 82 in Billings, 75 in
Livingston, 79 in Miles City, and 84 in Sheridan so at least a
couple of those are in the realm of possibility if conditions
break right.

A Pacific (i.E. Not that cold) cold front moves into the area
Thursday night. It should push through Livingston early evening
and exit the east before sunrise. Expect gusty northwest winds to
be the main impact going into the day Friday behind the front.
Temperatures will cool to seasonal levels around 60 degrees.
Precipitation chances will begin to increase over western zones
Friday morning, with a good chance of rain spreading across the
area by the evening hours. Models, cips analogs, and gefs
reforecasts in good agreement with around half an inch of
precipitation for western foothills locations, tapering to around
a quarter of an inch along a Roundup-Billings Broadus line, and
around a tenth over much of southeast Montana by the time
precipitation tapers off Saturday afternoon. Highest precipitation
chances will be late Friday night through noon Saturday. Pacific
nature of this system will keep accumulating snow confined to
areas above 8000 feet where 4 to 8 inches seems reasonable in the
highest terrain. Chambers

Long term...valid for Sat...sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

No changes this afternoon to the going forecast. Pattern continues
to be dominated by a persistent upper low off the Pacific coast,
pushing a southwesterly flow aloft over the area with periodic
energy and considerable moisture flowing over the area. Precipitable water values
are 2 to 3 Standard deviations above normal into Monday when this
pattern finally breaks and the upper low fills and moves to the
northeast across Canada. Expect another decent chance for
precipitation Sunday night into Monday as this pattern breaks
along with some gusty surface winds. This pattern change opens
the door to a faster westerly flow bringing smaller chunks of
energy through the area about every other day Tuesday through the
end of the week. General downslope gradient will work against
lower elevation precipitation with these waves but some low
chances of showers during these periods seems reasonable at this
point. This westerly flow pattern will continue to bring the
potential for strong winds around Livingston and Nye about every
other day as well starting Tuesday. Temperatures will be near
seasonal levels through the extended. Chambers


VFR will prevail through the period. Gusty southwest winds will
continue through the night...and much of the day Thursday near
klvm and along the beartooth/absaroka foothills. Gusts to around
35 knots can be expected in these areas. Rms/bt


Preliminary point temp/pops...

Thu Fri Sat sun Mon Tue Wed
bil 052/075 050/059 041/058 041/063 041/056 037/056 036/056
00/b 13/west 73/west 11/b 23/west 11/b 11/b
lvm 049/073 046/057 038/058 042/061 040/053 037/054 036/056
00/north 24/west 73/west 12/west 33/west 12/west 11/b
hdn 044/078 046/062 040/060 039/065 039/058 034/057 034/057
00/b 12/west 73/west 11/b 23/west 11/b 11/b
mls 044/077 047/060 040/055 039/061 039/053 034/054 033/055
00/u 11/b 54/west 11/b 24/west 11/b 11/b
4bq 044/078 047/063 040/058 039/065 040/057 033/057 032/057
00/u 02/west 74/west 11/b 23/west 11/b 11/b
bhk 042/074 044/058 036/051 035/058 036/051 030/053 031/052
00/b 01/b 45/west 11/b 33/west 11/b 11/b
shr 042/077 045/062 037/059 036/065 038/057 031/056 031/057
00/u 04/west 73/west 11/b 22/west 11/b 11/b


Byz watches/warnings/advisories...



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