Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kbyz 220854
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Billings Montana
254 am MDT Sat Jul 22 2017
Short term...valid for tdy and sun...
Hot and dry conditions will persist for the short term period,
with development of upper level ridging over the region.
Winds will be much lighter today over much of the region. Eastern
zones however will see breezy conditions continue today. Fire
weather concerns will therefore be higher in eastern fire zones.
Wind gusts will decrease again overnight.
Sunday will again require attention for fire weather concerns.
High temps and low relative humidity values are expected, but winds may be
tricky. Surface trof may limit winds over much of the region, it
will be a prefrontal day, so will need to take closer look as
situation develops and front approaches. Aag
Long term...valid for Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...Fri...
Extended forecast remains consistent this morning. Cold front
Monday will usher in more seasonal temperatures and a pattern
more favorable for scattered showers and thunderstorms. This
pattern should last through the week. Latest ensemble forecast
guidance suggests temperatures mainly in the 80s through the
week, with 70s in the foothills and 60s in the mountains.
Precipitable water values climbing above an inch combined with
general upslope winds provide the set up for increased shower and
thunderstorm potential. Still looking at Wednesday as the best
shot at precipitation. Low level easterly flow combines with
southwest flow aloft to provide sufficient shear for a chance of
strong to possibly severe storms through the period as well.
Overall the pattern should be favorable for fire fighting efforts
but additional lightning starts are probable given increased
thunderstorm potential. Chambers
VFR conditions will prevail over the next 36 hours. Areas of smoke
will produce local MVFR visibility at times, especially over areas
east of Rosebud County, including kmls. Chambers
Preliminary point temp/pops...
Tdy sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
bil 092 061/097 066/088 062/085 064/085 064/089 064/092
0/k 00/u 02/T 22/T 23/T 42/T 22/T
lvm 088 052/095 056/085 055/081 056/078 055/084 055/085
0/k 00/u 02/T 23/T 33/T 32/T 22/T
hdn 094 059/098 063/089 062/088 065/087 063/091 063/092
0/k 00/u 02/T 22/T 24/T 42/T 22/T
mls 093 062/099 069/090 064/086 066/086 066/090 067/092
0/k 00/u 01/u 11/b 13/T 33/T 21/u
4bq 092 060/097 067/092 063/087 064/085 063/088 064/090
0/k 00/u 02/T 12/T 34/T 43/T 22/T
bhk 090 056/094 064/091 061/084 061/083 062/087 063/090
0/k 00/u 01/u 11/b 24/T 22/T 22/T
shr 090 055/095 059/089 059/084 061/082 059/086 059/088
0/k 00/u 12/T 23/T 34/T 42/T 22/T
Montana...red flag warning in effect from 6 am this morning to 10 PM
MDT this evening for zones 130-132-133.