Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS65 KBYZ 220942 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 242 AM MST Wed Nov 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Thu... Minimal changes once again for the short term forecast period. Mainly dry and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail through the short term period, with near record highs possible on Thanksgiving Day. The only impacts to holiday travel today and Thursday are expected to be strong gusty winds for the Livingston area and adjacent Beartooth/Absaroka Foothills. Upper level high pressure will build back into the region today and prevail into Thursday, resulting in dry conditions and much above normal temperatures. Surface pressure gradients remain reasonably tight along east slopes of the Rockies as low pressure will be situated over southern Canada with high pressure across southwest Wyoming. This will support continued strong gusty winds in Livingston and the nearby foothills. This pattern persists into Thursday night, with strongest winds expected Thursday afternoon and evening, following a slight lull during the day today. Although winds will let up slightly today, they will still be gusty, and approach 50 mph at times through the day. Although mainly dry, a ripple in the flow will slide through the region today, which will coincide with a period of good upper level jet. Present moisture, a little additional Pacific moisture, and a bit of a break in otherwise strong downslope flow, may allow some shower development through central zones. Did expand coverage area some, but kept pops on the low side. Additionally, some Pacific moisture continue to stream into western mountains and nearby foothills regions, resulting in a continued chance of snow today. Another Pacific front moves across the forecast area Thursday night, bringing an end to the Livingston area winds. The front will also bring the likelihood for rain showers regionwide overnight, as temps appear to remain warm enough to curtail any chance of snow in lower elevations. AAG .LONG TERM...valid for Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue... Medium range guidance in overall agreement into the extended. Upper level ridging will dominate over the Northern Rockies Friday through Sunday for mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will also remain above normal with highs well into the 50s and even some 60s for the warmest day on Sunday. The next pacific system moves across the region Monday into Tuesday. Models differing somewhat in intensity and placement, but certainly looks unsettled and have raised precipitation chances. This system has the potential to pull in some colder air with an increasing threat for snowfall across the region. Something to monitor as we get closer. Frieders && .AVIATION... Gusty winds 40 to 50 kts will persist at KLVM into Thursday. VFR conditions will prevail across the entire region under upper level ridging. LLWS threat continues at KMLS through mid morning. Frieders && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 061 042/066 041/053 031/054 038/061 038/050 031/042 2/W 00/N 61/N 00/B 10/N 13/R 21/B LVM 059 047/068 038/047 029/051 039/058 036/045 026/038 2/W 10/N 61/N 01/N 11/N 24/O 31/N HDN 062 038/069 039/055 028/054 034/062 034/052 028/042 2/W 00/B 41/N 00/U 10/B 13/R 31/B MLS 060 041/067 041/053 028/052 033/061 034/049 027/039 1/N 00/B 31/N 00/U 10/B 13/R 42/S 4BQ 063 040/071 041/053 029/054 035/063 036/054 029/040 1/N 00/B 31/N 00/U 10/B 13/R 43/S BHK 059 037/067 040/052 025/051 030/060 033/049 024/036 1/N 00/N 31/N 01/U 00/B 13/R 53/S SHR 063 036/067 038/052 027/054 033/062 033/052 026/042 2/W 00/B 21/N 00/U 00/B 03/R 21/N && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 11 PM MST Thursday FOR ZONES 65-66. WY...None.