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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
1254 am EST sun Feb 18 2018

a pair of weak systems will split our region tonight while
generating some nuisance light snow. Fair weather will return
on Sunday as high pressure will pass to our south...then a
dramatic warm up will being for the first half of the work week
when temperatures will soar well into the 60s and possibly to
70. This will be the warmest weather since last October.


Near term /through today/...
widespread light snow is coming to an end across western New
York late tonight. The back edge of the synoptic snowfall will
move eastward overnight. Lingering snow showers will be possible
southeast of the lakes into Sunday morning. Winds will become
west by morning and lake snows will be confined to Oswego County
and the southern slopes of the Tug Hill...although with a cap
under 5k ft... am not impressed for anything more than nuisance
snow showers with morning accumulations under an inch. East of
Lake Erie...any leftover snow showers or flurries will be
largely supported by orographics. No accumulations are forecast
for this particular area. Otherwise...a large area of high
pressure passing to our south will provide fair weather across
the region.


Short term /tonight through Tuesday night/...
surface high pressure will shift off the East Coast south of New
England Sunday night. Expect this high to continue to influence our
region with mainly clear skies and southerly winds promoting a non-
diurnal temp trend. Low temperatures will occur during the evening
with readings near freezing in wny and mid 20s east of Lake Ontario,
then warming above freezing across wny by daybreak Monday and
pushing to near freezing east of Lake Ontario. Consensus of 12z
guidance holds off any precipitation from entering New York until after
12z Monday.

A warm and wet period is then expected Monday into Wednesday. Low
pressure will cross the Central Plains Sunday night then push to
Michigan by Tuesday. Warm air advection supported by a 50+ kt low
level jet ahead of this low will draw anomalously moist air tied to
the Gulf of Mexico north over New York with widespread rainfall
expected across western and north-central New York by Monday afternoon.
Highs Monday should reach into the 50s then hold steady or slow rise
higher Monday night. A +3/+4 standardized anomaly is associated with
pwats in excess of one inch. This is near or above the daily Max
moving average. The surface warm front will be lagging behind the
rain not forecast to reach New York until closer to 12z Tuesday.

The latest models indicate the warm front should shift the
widespread rainfall north Tuesday, likely north of much of the
forecast area by Tuesday afternoon and evening. This should allow
for a period of dry time and very warm temperatures. Highs Tuesday
afternoon will likely jump into the upper 60s to low 70s across most
locations. Coolest readings will remain northeast of the lakes with
a stiff southwest wind in place, which may keep temperatures along
the immediate Lake Shore in the 50s. Both daily record high
temperatures and record warm low temperatures are likely to be
broken during this stretch.

Concern arises across the north country where snow pack still
exists. The combination of snow melt and rainfall may cause flooding
issues on area creeks and rivers including the Black River. This
will continue to be highlighted in the severe weather potential statement.


Long term /Wednesday through Saturday/...
medium range model consensus shows the surface low will shift
northeast across Quebec through Wednesday. This should drag an
associated cold front across western and north-central Wednesday or
Wednesday night. Widespread rain should again shifting east across
our region with likely mixing with and changing to some snow

Strong dry high pressure should then build over the Great Lakes
Thursday/ Thursday night. There is a low chance of some rain and
snow showers on Thursday depending on the speed of the front but
mainly dry weather should be expected. Model consensus then shows
another warm front or surface low crossing our region Friday night
into Saturday likely leading some rain and/or snow showers Friday
night and chance or rain showers Saturday.

Temperatures Wednesday will be highly dependent on the timing of the
cold front but should likely remain above normal. Temperatures will
fall back toward normal Thursday through Saturday but likely
remaining 5-10 degrees above mid-late Feb normals.


Aviation /06z Sunday through Thursday/...
light snow will taper off from west to east overnight. IFR
conditions will likely linger at kjhw and kart into Sunday
morning. MVFR cigs expected elsewhere.

On Sunday...conditions will quickly improve to VFR. The exception
will be in the vicinity of the Tug Hill where MVFR cigs/vsbys will
accompany some weak lake effect activity.


Monday...deteriorating to MVFR to IFR in rain.
Monday night and Tuesday...generally VFR to MVFR in showers but IFR
across the north country in more widespread rain.
Wednesday...MVFR in moderately heavy showers.


winds will freshen in the wake of a passing trough overnight.
The higher winds and waves on portions of Lake Ontario will
reach Small Craft Advisory criteria after have
raised a Small Craft Advisory from Hamlin beach to Mexico Bay
for the bulk of Sunday.

Winds and waves will subside Sunday night and the next
area of high pressure will pass to the south.


Buf watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 4 am early this morning to 4 PM EST
this afternoon for loz043-044.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 am early this morning to 1 PM
EST this afternoon for loz042.



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