Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
222 am EDT Wed Jun 28 2017
aside from a few leftover isolated light showers or sprinkles...
conditions will be mainly dry and cool overnight. The upper level
trough responsible for the cool and unsettled weather of the past
few days will then move east on Wednesday...with high pressure
bringing mainly dry weather to our region. Another storm system
will then track into our region on Thursday and provide our next
opportunity for showers and thunderstorms...while also ushering
in warmer and somewhat more humid conditions.
Near term /through today/...
as of 06z...regional radars show that showers have largely
dissipated across western and north central New York...save for
a few leftover light showers/sprinkles over extreme far wny.
Expect these to completely fall apart altogether over the next
hour or two...with mainly dry and cool conditions otherwise
largely continuing. Overnight lows should generally range
between the mid 40s and lower 50s.
On Wednesday, surface high pressure over the Ohio Valley will
nose into the region, building in a warmer and drier airmass.
A few diurnal, scattered showers will be limited closer to the
upper-level low over the north country. Otherwise, diurnal cumulus
clouds will form over western New York. 850 mb temperatures will start
to recover into the low teens, bringing daytime highs back into
the low 70s.
Short term /tonight through Friday night/...
Wednesday night high pressure slides off the Carolina coast with a
southerly flow developing across our region. Rain from next
approaching system will reach parts of western and northern New York
late Wednesday night. Rain continues to overspread the region on
Thursday as a warm front lifts northward across the region. Enough
instability will develop such that embedded thunderstorms Thursday
will continue into Thursday night.
The weakening surface low will leave a weak frontal boundary across
the region on Friday with a few more showers and thunderstorms on
Temperature-wise, finally back to normal readings for the end of
June/beginning of July. Highs Friday reaching the upper 70s to near
80 and on Friday into the low 80s. Low Wednesday night in the mid
50s to around 60. As the air becomes more humid, Thursday night and
Friday night temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60s.
Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Saturday will start of warm and humid with a warm frontal boundary
moving north or already north wny. This will leave the region in
the warm sector of a low moving NE across Huron during the day. A
cold front associated with this low will move in sometime on
Saturday and spark additional thunderstorms. Frontal timing will
determine the threat for stronger storms, with a better chance
inland/toward cny if current model trends hold.
Saturday night and Sunday...this time period should mark the end of
an active pattern with high pressure slowly moving in with drying in
at least the mid levels. The main threat for additional showers
will be on Sunday afternoon along lake breeze convergent regions.
Sunday night and Monday...this period should be dry with weak high
pressure moving toward the region from the upper Midwest. Dry
weather area-wide isn't a guarantee this far out, but if the timing
of the current pattern holds, the natural progression should be
subsidence behind the Sunday system, with the exception of isolated
Summer convection on lake breeze convergent regions by Monday
Monday night and Tuesday...high pressure generally over head should
negate any threat for convection. The 12z GFS is more optimistic
precipitation from the WV/Virginia Appalachians into PA while the ec is
dry with a slightly stronger ridge over Ontario extending S into New York.
Will lean on the dry side for now as the GFS has had some model
variability further upstream over the Midwest when compared to a
more consistent pattern noted in successive ec runs.
Daily temperatures won't stray too far off normals for this time of
year, with highs in the mid 70s to near 80 and lows mostly in the
60s, with a slight cooling trend into early next week. Humidity
levels will vary, with some nights possibly warranting a/c while in
the warm sector, but at this time don't see any extreme sultry days
or nights for weekend/early next week. The warmest and most humid
period will be early/during Saturday while in the warm sector.
Aviation /07z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through Wednesday...mainly dry weather and VFR conditions will
be found across western and north central New York as expansive
surface high pressure ridges northeastward from the Ohio Valley.
The one possible exception to the dry weather will lie across
the Saint Lawrence valley and adjoining portions of the north
country...where the combination of daytime heating and the passage
of one final disturbance could yield some widely scattered to
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. This stated...
these will likely not impact the kart terminal.
Wednesday night the axis of the surface high will slide east and
off the Atlantic coastline...while low pressure tracks from the
upper Mississippi Valley to Upper Michigan...and pushes its
attendant warm front across far western New York and into Lake
Ontario. While the warm front will bring an increase in mid and
high cloud cover to the region along with the chance of some
showers...VFR conditions should continue to predominate.
Thursday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with scattered to occasionally
more numerous showers and thunderstorms.
with winds and waves having fallen below advisory levels on Lake
Erie and expected to continue diminishing overnight...the earlier
Small Craft Advisory was cancelled just prior to midnight.
Lighter winds will promote sub-advisory wave action on the lakes
from tonight and Wednesday. Winds and waves will again increase
Thursday ahead of the next frontal system pushing toward the eastern