Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
248 PM EDT Mon may 22 2017
showers east of Lake Ontario will taper off this afternoon with
clouds slowly clearing from west to east during the late afternoon
and evening. A weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather
Tuesday through most of Wednesday. Low pressure will then bring more
rain to the region Wednesday night and Thursday.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
an area of showers along a pre-frontal trough will exit the Eastern
Lake Ontario region through mid afternoon. The actual surface cold
front is lagging the pre-frontal trough by about 50 miles and may
produce a few more scattered showers through late afternoon east of
Lake Ontario. Otherwise the rest of the area will remain dry, with
clouds giving way to increasing amounts of sunshine across western
New York through late afternoon with Post-frontal drying and a developing
stable Lake Shadow off Lake Erie combining to dissipate cloud cover.
A weak ridge of high pressure surface and aloft will build over the
lower Great Lakes tonight. Subsidence and drying associated with
this high will continue to support clearing this evening, with the
Eastern Lake Ontario region the last area to clear overnight. The
clearing skies and a fairly cool airmass will allow for some
radiational cooling overnight. Expect lows in the upper 40s to around
50 on the lake plains, with low to mid 40s in the cooler sections of
the interior southern tier and Lewis County.
On Tuesday the weak surface ridge will remain in place from the
upper Ohio Valley to New England. Meanwhile warm advection and a
weak mid level shortwave will move northeast across southern
Ontario. This feature will have little direct impact on our area,
with any scattered showers remaining north of the Canadian border.
It will bring some increase in moisture and cloud cover, with both
mid level clouds and diurnal cumulus developing across the region.
Stable lake shadows will allow more sunshine northeast of lakes Erie
and Ontario. Temperatures will rebound, with highs in the lower to
mid 70s away from lake influences. Weak synoptic scale flow and
strong differential heating will allow local lake breezes to develop
with winds becoming onshore along all the shorelines in the
afternoon, keeping temperatures cooler within a few miles of the
Short term /Tuesday night through Thursday night/...
bubble of high pressure becoming centered across New England will
maintain dry weather across the area through the first half of
Wednesday. Overnight lows Tuesday night will fall back into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.
High pressure will exit the region Wednesday as a deepening surface
low slowly tracks into the Ohio Valley. Model tracks differ
slightly, but most of the guidance eventually tracks this low across
Ohio Wednesday night and across Lake Erie on Thursday. Increasing
moisture transport and lift on the front side of the approaching low
will eventually allow precipiation to Blossom across the area. Onset
time may be slowed a bit from continuity based on slower track of
approaching surface low. Warm air advection and slower timing of
precipitation onset should allow high temperatures Wednesday to
reach the lower to mid 70s.
Does look like there will be at least a solid 6 to 12 hour period of
fairly steady rain starting late Wednesday in the far west and
filling in across the rest of the area through Thursday. The steady
rain should taper to more showery weather by Thursday night as the
surface low starts to shift east of the area.
Long term /Friday through Sunday/...
the newly positioned coastal low will shift north into the Gulf of
Maine on Friday. Wrap around moisture and west to northwest upslope
flow off the lakes will keep chance pops in play across western and
central New York. Slight to low chance pops are forecast for Friday
night and Saturday as 00z models generally show our forecast area
between storm systems albeit with some timing differences with the
arrival of the next system. 00z ec and Gem models then show the next
system could bring in rain Saturday night or Sunday morning. The
system is forecast to then spread some rain showers north and east
across western and central New York through Sunday where mid-range chance
pops have been included.
In regards to temperatures...the Mercury will average close to
normal for Friday under weak cool advection and chances of showers
with Max temps mainly in the mid 60s. Warmer air is then expected to
arrive for the weekend when highs will be upper 60s to lower 70s
with mid 70s possible is spots on Sunday. Low temps will remain
mild, only dipping into the low to mid 50s each night as dewpoints
do not slip below 50.
Aviation /19z Monday through Saturday/...
an area of showers will exit the Eastern Lake Ontario region this
afternoon as a cold front sweeps east across the area. Abundant low
stratus along and behind the cold front will continue to bring a mix
of VFR and MVFR ceilings to the region this afternoon, with skies slowly
clearing and returning to VFR from west to east from late afternoon
through the evening.
A weak ridge of high pressure will then build over the lower Great
Lakes region tonight and Tuesday with VFR prevailing. Weak warm
advection and diurnal cumulus will bring some increase in cloud
cover on Tuesday, with ceilings remaining VFR.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...mainly VFR.
Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely.
Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
southwest flow in the wake of a departing cold front will continue
to bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to Lake Erie through early
this evening with waves building to 3-5 feet. Winds will be lower on
Lake Ontario and also shorter duration, which will prevent any
notable wave action. Weak high pressure will then build over the
lower Great Lakes tonight through Wednesday, providing a period of
light winds and flat wave action through the middle of the week.
New York...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for nyz010-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for lez020-