Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo New York
408 PM EDT sun Oct 22 2017
warm and dry weather will continue through Monday afternoon. A cold
front will then slowly cross the area Monday night and produce
periods of rain. A few scattered showers and lake effect rain
showers will then continue through much of the week as temperatures
turn progressively cooler.
Near term /through Monday/...
satellite imagery showing an area of high/thin cirrus crossing the
area from west to east this afternoon. The cirrus will remain thin
enough to still allow nearly full sunshine through the end of the
day. Temperatures will be a solid 20 degrees above average, with
highs in the mid to upper 70s at lower elevations.
Strong high pressure will remain anchored off the New England coast
tonight. Subsidence and dry air will continue to support fair
weather overnight with a few more patches of high cirrus level
clouds crossing the area. Model point soundings Show Low level
moisture increasing across central PA overnight, and some of this
may move northward into the higher terrain of the western southern
tier late tonight and Monday morning. Increasing southerly flow and
mixing will keep temperatures very mild overnight, with lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s on the lake plains and low to mid 50s across
the interior southern tier and Lewis County.
On Monday high pressure will drift farther east off the eastern
Seaboard. Subsidence and dry air will continue to hold moisture
ahead of the next system at Bay for the majority of the day, with
mid level clouds increasing from west to east. A strong mid level
trough will dig into the western Great Lakes through the course of
the day. DPVA from the first shortwave will begin to reach western
New York by the end of the day along with deeper moisture. This may allow
a few showers to develop at the far western end of the state by late
afternoon. Temperatures will be well above normal again, with highs
in the low to mid 70s on the lake plains aided by south-southwest downslope
flow, while higher terrain remains in the mid to upper 60s.
Short term /Monday night through Thursday night/...
time to 'pay the piper'. After a prolonged stretch of absolutely
gorgeous weather...we can expect a significant shift in the
overlying weather pattern across the country. This change will not
include a polarity shift in temperature anomalies over the nation
but will also include a much more dynamic and progressive
pattern...one that will involve three distinct cold shots. We will
only deal with the first of these colder intrusions in this short
A phasing of a split flow will take place as we open this period
late Monday and Monday night...as a robust shortwave within the
northern branch will dive south across the plains. This will carve
out a full latitude longwave trough that will capture a southern
stream storm system already found over the upper Ohio Valley. As the
mature southern stream system ejects to the north Monday night...it
will push a surface occlusion across our forecast area. Strong
frontogentic forcing associated with this boundary will be
accompanied by some lift under the right rear entrance region of a
110kt h25 jet over southern Ontario...providing plenty of forcing
within an airmass that will include precipitable water values in the3 vcnty of 1.5
inches. This will produce a 3-5 hour swath of fairly steady rain...
some of which could be heavy at times...especially if there is any
embedded convection. The precipitation will be found within a deep
southerly flow...one that will allow for some training while also
retarding the eastward progression of the main swath of rain. This
will encourage a soaking rainfall across the southern tier...but the
resulting downsloping will eat away at rainfall amounts across the
lake plains. As the occlusion pushes east during the course of the
night...a distinct dry slot will start to work across the region.
This will bring an end to the widespread rain over the far western
counties while the steady pcpn will be in the process of working
across the north country.
The other potential issue for Monday night will be the risk for some
strong gusty winds. A 50-60 kt low level jet will precede the sfc
occlusion and likely will precede the steadier rain. A portion of
these strong winds could be mixed to the sfc...with the greatest
risk area being found along the Lake Erie shoreline where
downsloping could come into play. Am not particularly impressed with
the strength of the forecast inversion and direction of the flow at
inversion level to do anything more than to continue the mention of
strong gusts in the severe weather potential statement product.
On Tuesday...all of the forcing associated with the initial storm
system will exit across the St Lawrence Valley while a wealth of mid
level dry air will spread across the entirety of our forecast area.
This will bring an end to the remaining steady rain that will be
found over eastern sections and should limit any possible lake
effect rain that tries to get going north/northeast of Lake Erie.
850 mb temps will drop to around 4c over Lake Erie by the end of the
day...so this should be just short of establishing any real response
off Lake Erie. The cold advection will lead to a cooler day
though...as Max temps will range from the upper 50s over parts of
the southern tier to the upper 60s across the north country.
Interestingly enough...these readings will still be above normal
late October values.
As a strong h25 jet digs into an already deep longwave trough over
the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night...a narrow shortwave
ridge will push across our forecast area. While this will keep the
bulk of our region precipitation...continued cold advection within a
south to southwest flow could direct some nuisance lake effect rain
showers over parts of the Niagara Frontier. Will continue to use low
chc pops for that area.
As the aforementioned jet rounds the base of the longwave trough on
Wednesday...it will become negatively tilted while making its way
across the Ohio Valley and parts of the lower Great Lakes.
Negligible height falls with the trough and a lack of any strong jet
dynamics will limit the potential for showers...although continued
lake effect showers should still be in the place east-northeast of
On Thursday...the axis of the negatively tilted trough will push
away from our region via the St Lawrence Valley. While the -2c air
at 850 mb will keep some very Minor Lake effect rain showers in place
east of both lakes...rising heights and increased subsidence will
support fair dry weather elsewhere.
Long term /Friday through Sunday/...
the longwave trough over the center of the country will 'reload'
Friday as the next vigorous mid level disturbance will dive
southwards across the northern plains. This will re-establish the
longwave trough while the next (second) shot of colder air will pour
southwards into the lower 48.
The leading edge of this next cold shot will follow a cold front
that will extend south form a sub-1000mb low over the upper Great
Lakes. This front will make its way across the lower Great Lakes on
Saturday...then is forecast to stall over our forecast area as it
will become parallel to the mean h025-70 flow. Following a nice day
of weather on Friday...this scenario will favor scattered showers
for both days of the weekend.
Looking further ahead towards the following week...a third shot of
cold air will charge southwards...and this one will have the best
chance of supporting our first flakes of the season across our
Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/...
an area of high/thin cirrus level clouds will cross the area from
west to east through this afternoon, with a few more areas of thin
cirrus tonight. Model guidance continues to show an increase in low
level moisture across central PA overnight, and some of this may
move into the higher terrain of the western southern tier late
tonight and Monday morning. This may bring some IFR ceilings to the
higher terrain, but this should remain east of kjhw if it
On Monday VFR will continue to prevail in most areas with mid level
clouds increasing from west to east during the afternoon ahead of
the next system. Some MVFR ceilings may linger across the higher terrain
of the interior southern tier, western Finger Lakes, and eventually
the Tug Hill.
Monday night and Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with occasional rain.
Wednesday and Thursday...areas of MVFR with a chance of showers.