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fxus61 kbtv 261147 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
747 am EDT Wed Apr 26 2017

a low pressure area at the surface and aloft along the mid
Atlantic coast will drift slowly northeast today and be near
Cape Cod tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build northward
from the mid Atlantic states northward into northern New York
this afternoon. Expecting rain showers this morning to begin to
taper off by this afternoon, with mostly cloudy skies expected.
A ridge of high pressure will be over the north country on
Thursday, with highs in the 70s to the lower 80s.


Near term /through Thursday/...
as of 746 am EDT Wednesday...current forecast in good shape, so
no changes have been made.

Previous discussion from 416 am EDT Wednesday...radar loop
showing scattered rain shower activity around the region this
morning. Expecting the showers to taper off this afternoon as a
ridge of high pressure aloft builds northward into northern New
York this afternoon. Expecting skies to be mostly cloudy today
and tonight. Highs today will be in the 60s. Lows tonight will
be mainly in the 40s to lower 50s. A ridge of high pressure will
be over the region on Thursday with highs mainly in the 70s to
lower 80s.

Short term /Thursday night through Friday/...
as of 354 am EDT Wednesday...frontal boundary extending from
closed low around James Bay will moves across the north country
Thursday night through early Friday. Even though the front will
exit east on Friday, vorticity at 500mb will continue to affect
the region with clouds. Temperatures not as warm with generally
70s in the Champlain Valley, eastwards. 60s to the west.


Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 354 am EDT ridge axis sets up near
Bermuda, several pieces of vorticity will move over the
northeast, resulting in multiple days of chances of rain
showers. Models continue to show brief period of dry weather
over the north country Saturday night into Sunday before
strengthening low pressure system brings warm air advection showers Sunday
night. Expect frontal boundary associated with the stacked low
to affect the region Monday night. With precipitable waters over 1.5 inches,
still looking at periods of heavier rain along with gusty winds
due 850mb jet of 40-50 kts or more jet. GFS continues to show
500-1000j/kg MUCAPE in the St Lawrence Valley on Monday, which
could help initiate convection. Precipitation chances continue
on Tuesday as the base of the mid-level trough moves over the
region. Precip begins to taper off late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.


Aviation /12z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 12z Thursday...mainly VFR in light rain showers across
the region as of 11z Wednesday, with some local pockets of
IFR/MVFR in fog and mist. Expecting most of the light rain
shower activity will come to an end by 18z Wednesday, as an
upper ridge builds into the region this afternoon.


Thursday: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday night: VFR. Chance rain showers.
Friday: VFR. Chance rain showers.
Friday night: VFR. Slight chance rain showers.
Saturday: VFR. Chance rain showers.
Saturday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance rain showers.


Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
New York...none.



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