Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 081520
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
issued by National Weather Service Albany New York
1020 am EST Thu Dec 8 2016
some rain and snow showers will be over the north country today
and tonight. Much colder air will move south from Canada tonight
with high temperatures from Friday through Sunday only in the
20s. A weak ridge of high pressure will be over the region on
Saturday, with fair and dry weather expected. There will be
chance for snow showers across the north country from Sunday
Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/...
as of 1020 am EST Thursday...composite radar loop showing well
established lake effect snow band off of Lake Ontario extending
northeast across southeast Saint Lawrence, southern frankin and
northern Essex counties in New York. Only changes were to lower
pops over far northern New York as band is slightly further south on
radar. Band forecast to continue moving south today, but another
area of snow/snow showers will likely develop across the remainder
of the region today as a secondary cold front drops south. Btv 4
km model shows a band of precipitation moving south from late this
afternoon through this evening. Continued with mainly chance pops
across the remainder of the region for today/tonight, except
likely pops over portions of northern Vermont this afternoon. As
colder and drier air filters into the region tonight, snow showers
should gradually diminish but will continue with chance pops for
Short term /6 am Friday morning through Saturday night/...
as of 338 am EST Thursday... 500mb trough with embedded
vorticity will see continued chance for snow showers Friday,
followed by slight ridging Friday night/early Saturday morning.
Overall northwest flow and Froude forecasts support light orographic
snow showers. Surface high pressure builds in late Saturday,
bringing an end to snow showers across the regions.
Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 338 am EST Thursday...active pattern continues in the
long term with multiple shortwave energy moving through the
north country. The first arrives Sunday with snow showers. This
looks to be followed by a more significant system Monday.
Currently 00z guidance showers surface low moving from the Ohio
River valley to the coast, mainly on Sunday night into Monday.
Complicated forecast as surface high pressure resides over
eastern Canada, keeping cooler air over the region in east-southeast/southeast
flow. Model guidance continues to diverge on solutions for the
middle of next week with regard to large mid level low. Slightly
below temperatures continue throughout the period.
Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/...
through 12z Friday...composite radar loop showing well
established lake effect snow band moving northeast from Lake
Ontario at this time across the Adirondacks in northern New
York. Expecting IFR/LIFR conditions at kslk today, associated
with this lake effect snow band. The remainder of the region
will see a chance of rain and snow showers today and tonight as
a cold front brings colder air into the region. Mainly VFR
conditions expected this morning with some areas of MVFR in snow
Outlook 12z Friday through Monday...after 06z Friday snow
showers become confined mainly to the mountains with IFR
conditions lingering at mpv/slk through 12z Friday. MVFR cigs
linger at slk/mpv on Friday with VFR developing Friday night
into Sunday. Next system arrives on Sunday afternoon with
another widespread light snow event. This system will produce
widespread IFR conditions between 18z Sunday into 12z Monday.
New York...Lake effect Snow Advisory until midnight EST tonight for