Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 170149
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
949 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017
Canadian high pressure will build into the area tonight with
slowly clearing skies and chilly temperatures with areas of
frost expected. High pressure remains atop the region for the
remainder of the week with fair weather expected along with mild
Near term /through Tuesday night/...
as of 948 PM EDT Monday...gradual clearing trend from late this
afternoon and earlier this evening continues as planned. Just
updated grids but no changes needed.
Aftn discussion...a mainly cloudy and cool day
generally panned out as expected as temperatures have held
nearly steady in the 40s under blustery, though gradually
diminishing northwesterly flow. A few sprinkles and Summit level
freezing drizzle has persisted this afternoon, but with
thinning moisture profiles this should wane and end through the
evening hours. High pressure will continue to build into the
region tonight with skies clearing over time as winds abate to
light. This will set the stage for seasonably chilly lows in the
25 to 35 degree range with customary variability and
frost/freeze headlines continue for the immediate Champlain
Valley where the local frost/freeze program remains in place.
By Tuesday into Tuesday night high pressure will build atop and
east of the area with mainly clear/sunny skies expected outside
a few passing high clouds. Winds trend southerly and become a
bit gusty from the Champlain Valley west by afternoon as high
temperatures range through the 50s, staying milder and only
falling into the 35 to 45 degree range overnight, coldest east.
Short term /Wednesday through Thursday night/...
as of 345 PM EDT Monday...high pressure continues to influence
the north country through the short term with only a slight
chance of showers for extreme northern Vermont late Thursday
into Thursday night as a weakening cold front gives a glancing
blow near the international border. 12z GFS shows very weak low
level deformation associated with the front. After having
stretch of dry weather in place over the north country, may be
difficult to saturate the atmosphere for more than a couple
light sprinkles. This front will likely provide some clouds for
the latter half of Thursday and Thursday night. Above normal
temperatures will remain in place.
Long term /Friday through Monday/...
as of 345 PM EDT Monday...ridging aloft and at the surface will
provide quiet weather through the weekend. Temperatures remain
above normal for mid to late October with a warming trend over
the weekend as the surface ridge shifts slightly eastward and
brings return to southwesterly flow over the north country.
The next chance for precipitation will arrive Monday into
Tuesday. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) indicate digging mid level trough,
though there are timing differences along with evolution of
associated surface features.
Aviation /02z Tuesday through Saturday/...
through 00z Wednesday...a mix of broken/overcast MVFR/VFR cigs will
trend mainly sky clear from 06z Tuesday Onward as high pressure builds
into the region. Highest confidence of MVFR cigs at
kslk/kmpv/krut terminals through 02-03z Tue then clearing...some
hi/mid clouds Tue but VFR.
Winds trending light overnight. After 12z Tuesday flow trends
southerly and slowly increases, especially from the Champlain
Tuesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. No sig weather.
Thursday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday: VFR. No sig weather.
Friday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Saturday: VFR. No sig weather.
Vermont...freeze warning from 1 am to 8 am EDT Tuesday for vtz002-005-
Frost advisory from 1 am to 8 am EDT Tuesday for vtz001.
New York...freeze warning from 1 am to 8 am EDT Tuesday for nyz028-035.