Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 012115
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
415 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2017
a low pressure area will move northeast across the Saint
Lawrence valley overnight. Rain showers overnight will change to
snow showers over the higher elevations of the Adirondacks and
Green Mountains after midnight tonight. The region will remain
under cyclonic flow on Thursday, with a chance of rain or snow
showers. Much colder weather will move into the north country
on Thursday and remain over the north country through Sunday.
A high pressure area will build slowly east from the Great Lakes
Thursday night and will crest over the north country on Sunday.
Near term /through Thursday/...
as of 414 PM EST Wednesday...rain showers will move through the
region overnight, and change to snow showers over the higher
elevations of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains after midnight
tonight. A surface low pressure area will move northeast across
the Saint Lawrence valley overnight. Expecting southwest
surface wind gusts to increase after midnight tonight, with
gusts of 35 to 45 mph expected across the region. This is just
below Wind Advisory criteria, so have not put up a Wind Advisory
at this time, but have issued a Special Weather Statement to
highlight the gusty winds and the potential for some downed
trees or tree branches, which could cause some power outages.
Have gone warmer than MOS guidance for min temperatures
overnight as gusty southwest winds will help to keep
temperatures up overnight. The Max temperature for Thursday will
likely be just after midnight tonight, and then fall through the
day on Thursday, as surface winds shift to the west-northwest.
The region will remain under cyclonic flow on Thursday, so will
keep in a chance of rain and snow showers.
Short term /Thursday night through Friday night/...
as of 200 PM EST Wednesday...quieter weather returns for the
short term forecast period with progressive upper level flow,
cold air advection and surface high pressure dominating. Dry
weather with cold temperatures forecasted for Thursday night
through Friday night. Friday and Friday night 850 temperatures
will dip into the negative 20s. Maximum temperatures on Friday
will be ten degrees below seasonal normals and minimum
temperatures Friday night will be about 15 degrees below
seasonal normals. Will have to watch possible Wind Chill
Advisory criteria with brisk winds and cold temperatures
Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 215 PM EST Wednesday...dry weather will continue through
the weekend with surface and upper level ridging over the area.
Temperatures will continue to be below seasonal normals. Warm
air advection will return for Sunday and continue into next
week. Models still indicating the next significant weather will
be Tuesday into Wednesday. Models continue to disagree on timing
of this feature, but both GFS and European model (ecmwf) have system pass well
to our west through the Great Lakes region and north into
Canada. Lots of uncertainty still with timing so have lots of
chance pops mentioned for now.
Aviation /21z Wednesday through Monday/...
through 18z Thursday...composite radar loop showing a line of
showers developing around 18z Wednesday over the Saint Lawrence
valley in northern New York at this time. Btv 4km model shows
this line moving east across the region this afternoon and early
tonight, with the possibility of an isolated thunderstorm with
this line. Expecting areas of mainly MVFR in showers, with some
local pockets of IFR possible. A low pressure area will move
northeast up the Saint Lawrence valley tonight. Expecting
surface wind gusts at or above 30 knots after 06z Thursday and
continuing through 18z Thursday. Expecting rain showers to
change to snow showers, mainly over the higher elevations of the
Adirondacks and Green Mountains after 06z Thursday.
Outlook 18z Thursday through Monday...
18z Thursday through 00z Friday...some scattered snow showers
are expected on Thursday mainly over the higher elevations of
the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. West-northwest surface wind
gusts at or above 30 knots diminishing by 00z Friday
00z Friday through 00z Monday...mainly VFR as a ridge of high
pressure builds slowly east from the Great Lakes through the
as of 414 PM EST Wednesday...rain showers and snow melt due to
the warm temperatures today, will likely lead to some rises on
rivers and streams overnight. Latest guidance suggests that
rivers and streams will remain below flood stage on Thursday, as
the region has lost most of the snow pack, especially in the
valleys this past weekend across the region.