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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1045 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Synopsis...
the showers and thunderstorms end tonight and much of the area
will be dry on Wednesday with just the possibility of some
showers up along the international border. Below normal
temperatures will continue through midweek but a warmer and
wetter pattern sets up for the rest of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

Near term /until 11 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 1026 PM EDT Tuesday...most of the showers have now moved
out of the area, no significant precipitation is expected with
chance for showers dropping off through the overnight. Will
probably see some fog around, especially in areas which had rain
today. Previous discussion follows.

The radar continues to see scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the north country. The lack of much surface instability
has limited how tall the storms have been capable of growing
however with low freezing levels and advancing cold pool aloft
anticipate a continued small hail threat through the evening
hours.

The showers will end this evening as we lose what little diurnal
driven heat warmed the area to the upper 60s. High pressure will
build in behind the upper level shortwave as it exits the
region this evening and Wednesday. There may be some residual
energy that holds on along the international border so I could
see some isolated showers that develop in the afternoon but
otherwise it should be a pleasant day tomorrow with highs in the
lower 70s.

&&

Short term /11 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/...
as of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...as the weak ridge continues
to build into region anticipate any residual showers to come to
an end. With high pressure aloft it should be a relatively
quiet night. Unfortunately that quiet weather will end as we
start to see a return towards a more active period. Low pressure
moving through the Great Lakes will push a west/east oriented
warm front over the region. Showers develop along the boundary
across northern New York during the morning, and become
widespread across the entire forecast area through the afternoon
and into Thursday night. Composites charts indicate that the
combination of forcing/lift/shear/instability isn't quite
aligned so we may or may not see much widespread thunder.
However given continuity I went ahead and continued to include
mention of isolated thunderstorms on Thursday generally along
the southern tier where instability will be highest.

&&

Long term /Friday through Tuesday/...
as of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...as we head into the weekend the
biggest threat will be the continued active weather. We are
currently already an 1.5 inches above normal for the month and
nearly 6 inches above normal of precip for the year. With
continued active weather and more rain on the way Hydro impacts
come straight to my mind. Friday night and Saturday will see
several waves of low pressure riding along a stalled frontal
boundary to our west will provide ample instability for showers
and thunderstorms along with additional moisture and pwats
surging to 1.5-2". While the exact timing of each individual
wave is difficult at this time, confidence is high we'll see
periods of heavy rain with rainfall amounts in the 1-2" range
on top of the 1" we're likely to see on Thursday. Considering
how wet area soils are already, this could be the Tipping Point
to realize flash flood potential and bears watching through the
week.

Sunday remains showery, especially across northern areas as the
parent upper trough and surface cold front look to swings through
the region, with quieter and drier conditions expected Monday Post
fropa.

&&

Aviation /03z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 00z Thursday...scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue moving southwest to northeast across the entire area
until 02z. These storms will have the potential for gusty winds,
generally up to 20-30kts and small hail. Visibilities in the
strongest storms will drop to 3-4sm and have mainly covered this
with tempos. So i've continued the previous forecasters idea
using a tempo group to handle the storms with vicinity showers
elsewhere and amendments for ts when needed. Any showers and
storms will quickly be ending between 00z and 04z. Expect VFR
conditions through the period...with localized MVFR/IFR
conditions near the showers and storms and possibly some br at
slk tonight. Winds will generally be from the south and
southwest through the period.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: VFR. Slight chance rain showers.
Thursday: VFR. Likely rain showers.
Thursday night: MVFR. Likely rain showers...slight chance thunderstorms and rain.
Friday: VFR/MVFR. Likely rain showers...slight chance thunderstorms and rain.
Friday night: VFR/MVFR. Likely rain showers...slight chance thunderstorms and rain.
Saturday: VFR/MVFR. Likely rain showers...slight chance thunderstorms and rain.
Saturday night: VFR. Likely rain showers...slight chance thunderstorms and rain.
Sunday: VFR. Chance rain showers...slight chance thunderstorms and rain.

&&

Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...deal

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