Scientific Forecaster Discussion
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
338 am EDT Mon may 28 2018
a weak warm front will lift through the north country today
and lead to a few scattered showers with the potential for
some embedded thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening.
Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 70s as warm air
advection sets up. High pressure will dominate through mid week
as dry weather and above normal temps persist through Thursday.
Near term /through Tuesday/...
as of 332 am EDT Monday...latest IR/WV imagery shows a shortwave
over Quebec slowly moving east. This will lift a warm front
through the north country during the day and will be the source
of some scattered showers with some isolated rumbles of thunder.
Canadian radar's are already showing the showers northwest of
Ottawa and these showers will eventually move into northern New
York. While the potential for lightning is there, the
parameters aren't that great so I dont have full confidence in
there being much thunder. Instability is better further south
and mid level lapse rates aren't that steep. Spc's calibrated
thunder progs peak at about 20% between 00-03z this evening and
then with the loss of diurnal heating it rapidly falls off. As
the previous day shift noted, there's quite a bit of dcape based
on the some of the cam models. Our local btv 4km WRF is indicating
the values of 600-900 j/kg which means that when storms develop
there will be the potential for some gusty winds.
Heading into Monday night the front will clear and high
pressure will build in. Depending on rainfall totals and
where the rainfall occurs its possible to see some fog
developing this evening in the sheltered River Valley
locations. I haven't added it to the forecast because i'm not
sure if we'll decouple overnight in enough time to see fog
develop but some of the signals are there. With warm air
advection pushing in, lows should only fall into the low 60s
this evening which is well above normals for late may.
Tuesday will be the start of a glorious week as high pressure
will lead to clear skies temps warming into the 70s and light to
moderate northerly flow.
Short term /Tuesday night through Wednesday/...
as of 256 am EDT Monday...Tuesday night and Wednesday will
feature warm and dry weather with a ridge of surface high
pressure building into the area from Canada. Tuesday night will
be dry in the mid levels, so expect mostly clear skies along
with light winds. Temperatures will drop to the 40s to lower
50s. Temperatures will warm on Wednesday into the mid 70s to
lower 80s as 850 temps warm to about 15 c by the afternoon.
Clouds will increase from the west Wednesday afternoon and have
a slight chance of instability showers that afternoon.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 256 am EDT Monday...surface and upper level ridging
remain over our region for Wednesday night through Thursday,
then finally begins to break down Thursday night. Min temps will
be in the 50s, with Max temps reaching the upper 70s to lower
80s on Thursday. The weather becomes more active for Friday
through Saturday with upper level trough, surface low and
residual tropical moisture moving over our area. Increasing
dewpoints across the region with a wetter air mass moving in,
will lead to increasing threat for showers and possible storms
for Friday and Saturday. A lot of differences in the models from
Saturday night Onward leads to a lot of uncertainty, with
models struggling to resolve Alberto.
Aviation /08z Monday through Friday/...
through 12z Tuesday...expect mainly VFR conditions with some
MVFR ceilings at slk and mpv during the overnight hours. A warm
front will bring scattered showers with a few possible lightning
strikes this afternoon and evening but for the time being given
the isolated to scattered nature i've chosen to just mention
vcsh in the tafs. There's some potential for the showers to
develop some gusty winds so even if there's no thunder we'll
still need to monitor for gusty cross winds. Ceilings will lift
early in the morning and should be in the 6,000-8,000 ft range
during the afternoon. If any showers that develop this afternoon
intersect with a taf site MVFR visibilities and ceilings will
be possible. South winds of 6-10kts will shift west to west
southwest during the afternoon behind the front but should
become light and variable overnight.
Tuesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Tuesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday: VFR. No sig weather.
Wednesday night: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday night: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance rain showers.
Friday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra, chance
thunderstorms and rain.