Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kbtv 220829
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
329 am EST Wed Nov 22 2017
a cold front will move west to east across the north country
today, bringing rain and snow showers to the region.
Accumulations will be light. Thanksgiving day will be dry with
maximum temperatures in the 30s. Next chance for showers will be
Saturday into Sunday with another cold front crossing the area.
Near term /through Thursday/...
as of 328 am EST Wednesday...mainly rain showers expected today
as a cold front pushes across our forecast area. Only exception
will be the northern Adirondacks and especially the higher
elevations where temps will be in the 30s. Best upper level
forcing moves across the area from 15-00z, and this is when we
should see the most radar coverage. Precipitation will likely
become orographically driven during the afternoon hours and
especially in northern Vermont. Quiet weather for tonight with a
weak ridge of surface high pressure building into the area from
the west with height rises aloft. BUFKIT soundings show clouds
lingering through the overnight. Temperatures will be pretty
dependent on cloud cover, but should be in the teens to
Short term /Thursday night through Friday/...
as of 258 am EST Wednesday...upper low passing well north of
the region will drag the tail end of a weak cold front through
the forecast area Thursday night with little overall impact
outside of some lake effect snow showers across southern St.
Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York and the higher
elevations of northern Vermont. Minor snow accumulations are
expected, generally less than an inch. By Friday morning, lake
effect will have moved out of the area and dissipated as high
pressure builds in with a partly sunny and seasonable end to the
work week expected. Highs should run mainly in the 40s.
Long term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
as of 258 am EST Wednesday...no big changes from the previous
forecast thinking for the extended period with the main
highlights being another weak frontal passage on the weekend,
and another big warmup mid-week.
High pressure over the eastern Seaboard Friday night shifts
east Saturday in advance of another low pressure system passing
well north of the border over James Bay. Dry warm front moves
through the north country Friday night with mild temps in the
30s overnight warming into low/mid 40s Saturday before a cold
front swings in Saturday afternoon. Models continue to show a
real lack of deep moisture with this boundary as well, but there
should be enough moisture in the low levels to produce a few
scattered rain showers in the afternoon, and some upslope
enhanced snow showers Saturday night and Sunday as the parent
upper trough swings through.
High pressure builds in once again for Monday with temps
seasonably cool in the 30s for highs and teens/20s for lows.
Monday night into Tuesday the high shifts offshore and the
pressure gradient increases markedly across the region as strong
low pressure developing out of the Lee of The Rockies moves
northeast into the Great Lakes by tuesday's end. Increasing
south/southwesterly flow will bring another big warmup to the
region Tuesday with temps firmly in the 40s to possibly low 50s
in the deeper valleys with no precipitation expected.
Aviation /09z Wednesday through Sunday/...
through 00z Thursday...increasing clouds today with
precipitation moving into the area from west to east. So far it
is only raining at mss. Have tried to time the showers moving
across the rest of the taf sites accordingly. Deeper moisture
moves into the area today ahead of a cold front and as the
precipitation begins the ceilings will drop down into the MVFR
and IFR categories. Visibilities will also lower into the MVFR
category between 10z and 18z with rain and snow showers moving
across the region. Once the precipitation ends, VFR visibilities
are expected for the remainder of the period. South to
southwest winds will prevail through about 12z, then a cold
front moves in and winds shift to the west and northwest for the
remainder of the period. Ceilings and visibilities will both be
improving to VFR after 00z.
Thanksgiving day: VFR. No sig weather.
Thursday night: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
Friday: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. No sig weather.
Friday night: VFR. Slight chance shsn.
Saturday: mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance rain showers.
Saturday night: mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
shsn, chance rain showers.
Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance shsn.