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000 
FXUS61 KBTV 181144
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
744 AM EDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the east coast of the United States will
maintain dry conditions across the North Country through Sunday.
With south to southwest winds in place, temperatures will warm
well above seasonal levels for mid to late October beginning
today, and continue through the upcoming weekend. The next 
chance of appreciable precipitation occurs by Monday into 
Tuesday of next week as a cold front crosses the area from west 
to east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 740 AM EDT Wednesday...Very quiet wx through the near-
term. A weak shortwave trough passing to our north across 
southern Quebec is bringing localized upslope/mountain
cloudiness to the nrn Adirondacks and central/nern VT. These
clouds will tend to dissipate by 14-15Z as trough shifts further
east and daytime heating/mixing reduces low-level RH. Generally
looking at clear skies otherwise today and tonight. The sfc 
ridge axis extending along the east coast of the U.S. and 
building shortwave ridging aloft later today will bring dry 
weather thru the period, with moderating temperatures. Should 
see highs into the mid 60s in valley locations today. Gradient 
flow moderate early this morning, with south winds 10-20 mph in 
the Champlain Valley during the pre-dawn hrs, but slackening 
p-gradient will result in S-SW daytime winds lowering to 5-10 
mph. Lows mainly in the 40s for tonight. Temperatures moderate 
further on Thursday, reaching the upr 60s to lower 70s. Another 
mid-upr level shortwave trough is progged by 00Z GFS to pass 
along the intl border Thursday afternoon. This feature should 
bring an increase in mid-upr level clouds, but dry low-level 
conditions should preclude any precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will lead to quiet 
weather conditions with mostly clear skies under broad 
subsidence. Anticyclonic flow will bring warming temps each day 
with 60s on Friday and upper 60s to 70 by Sunday. Each night 
we'll radiatively cool and should see temps in the upper 30s to 
low 40s. The weather should be phenomenal for any outdoor 
activities planned over the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 329 AM EDT Wednesday...Coming out of the weekend expect a
full latitude trough digging into the eastern CONUS which will 
bring several chances for showers to the region. The first 
chance will be a front that moves through late Monday into 
Tuesday with the best chance being towards the midweek as a 
closed low should develop over the Great Lakes and advances a 
stronger frontal system through the North Country. Global models
are depicting a 995mb low over the Great Lakes with a 1020mb 
high out over the Atlantic. The resulting pressure gradient 
should lead to fairly gusty winds with the potential for 15-25 
mph with gust to 30mph of southwest funneled valley flow on 
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR/dry conditions. Upper level
disturbance passing across srn Quebec is bringing localized MVFR
ceilings to SLK, and BKN-OVC035-045 conditions at MPV/RUT. It 
appears any localized MVFR in the mountains will dissipate by 
14-15Z this morning, leaving mainly clear conditions through the
balance of the TAF period. SFC winds will remain S-SW thru the 
period, generally 5-10kts for the daylight hrs and thru tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for 
scheduled maintenance through a good portion of today (October 
18) as technicians repaint the radome.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos

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