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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
1024 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Synopsis...
high pressure over the region tonight and Thursday will result
in drier conditions, lighter winds, and clearing skies. A warm
front will arrive on Friday with increasing clouds, gusty winds,
and mixed wintry precipitation across the north country.
Temperatures will moderate through the weekend...becoming near
normal for the end of March.

&&

Near term /through Thursday night/...
as of 1023 PM EDT Wednesday...few more tweaks to temp trends to
match current obs, otherwise a clear, quiet and cold night is
expected across the north country with lows mainly in the single
digits.

Previous discussion...high pressure dominates the near
term with today's gusty winds subsiding overnight as the high
shifts eastward from the central Great Lakes region. With clear
skies and lighter winds, expect Thursday morning lows of 0 to 10
degrees for most areas and single digits below zero in the
higher terrain. Some modest recovery on temps Thursday aided by
relatively high late March sun angle, with highs upr 20s to
lower 30s and lighter northwest winds 5-10 mph.

As the ridge of high pressure at the surface shifts eastward
off the Atlantic coast Thursday night, warming SW flow will
being to filter into the region limiting the nocturnal cooling.
Increasing clouds ahead of approaching warm front will also
result in warmer overnight/morning lows. Expect precipitation
associated with the front to hold off til after 12z Friday.

&&

Short term /Friday through Friday night/...
as of 245 PM EDT Wednesday....models maintain overall
consistency showing widespread warm advection-driven
precipitation arriving on Friday as deeper moisture and
southerly flow return. Some enhanced wind channeling will be
likely in the Champlain Valley where gusts to 30 mph look
plausible at this point. As is typical during early Spring
scenarios, boundary layer thermal profiles will be crucial in
determining p-type. Primary idea will be for a mix to rain from
the Champlain Valley west, and a longer more persistent period
of mix/snow across eastern Vermont where cooler more stable air will
be tougher to mix out. A few inches of accumulation will be
possible, especially in elevated terrain and eastern Vermont. High
temperatures generally from the upper 30s to lower 40s from the
Champlain Valley west and mid to upper 30s across eastern Vermont.

By Friday night solutions continue to suggest central Canada high
pressure will build east and south with primary band of
precipitation being shunted slowly southward over time as coverage
lessens. Northern counties may in fact trend dry toward
daybreak on Saturday. Boundary layer profiles cool slightly during
the drying process such that p-type will likely transition to more
light snow with perhaps some lingering mix with rain in warmer
valley locales. Again, some light additional snow accumulations will
be possible, especially central/south. Low temperatures mainly
from the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

Long term /Saturday through Wednesday/...
as of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...best day of the 7-day forecast
period appears to be on Saturday as aforementioned Canadian high
pressure noses briefly southward into the area. Skies should
trend partly sunny north and variably cloudy south under light
northerly flow. Some lingering light mixed precipitation may be
possible during the first half of the day south but shouldn't be
a big deal. Temperatures generally 35 to 40 north and 40 to 45
south.

The forecast then becomes increasingly complex from Sunday Onward
into early next week as waves of modest advection of warmth and
moisture ripple through the area with continued chances of
precipitation. Boundary layer thermal profiles will again be
critical in determining eventual p-type through the period, with
subtle differences of just a few degrees potentially having a large
impact. Other factors such as time of day and precipitation
intensity/wet bulb cooling processes will likely play a role as
well. For now will maintain highest threat of precipitation during
the Sunday/Monday time frame, and potentially again toward the
middle of next week. Temperatures should exhibit a narrower than
normal diurnal range given the expected abundance of clouds with
highs from 35 to 45 and overnight lows 25 to 35.

&&

Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/...
through 00z Friday...VFR with 1038mb high pres will prevail at
all taf sites tonight into Thursday. Brisk northwest winds 10 to
15 with gusts to 20 knots will decrease overnight to 5 to 10
knots...before slowly shifting back to the south/southwest on
Thursday with increasing mid/upper level clouds.

00z Friday through Monday...
active period of weather returns with increasing clouds and
chances for wintry precipitation...especially between Friday
from 15z to 00z Sunday. Expecting a period of snow showers with
widespread IFR conditions Friday...followed by occasional
rain/snow showers with MVFR in the valleys and IFR at mpv/slk.
Weak high pres and VFR returns for Sunday into Monday.

&&

Btv watches/warnings/advisories...
Vermont...none.
New York...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...banacos/kgm

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