Scientific Forecaster Discussion
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Burlington Vermont
753 PM EDT Thu Jul 28 2016
cold front remains on the edge of the international border and
will slowly track southward this evening and tonight. Ongoing
showers and thunderstorms will die down following sunset, by about
9 PM. A few showers are possible again on Friday across south-
central Vermont as the low-level frontal zone continues to shift
southward into southern New England. Cooler and drier air will
filter in across northern sections for Friday and Saturday.
Near term /through Friday/...
as of 720 PM EDT Thursday...convection winding down across the
area after a busy but low impact afternoon. A few lingering
showers should continue to dissipate. Humid conditions and some
clouds will remain however, with patchy fog in the forecast for
much of the area, especially for spots that received rain today.
Some drier air over southern Ontario will make its way into
northern St. Lawrence County, however satellite showing another
slug of mid level moisture over central/western New York that has a
trajectory to bring it across our forecast area. Only minor
changes with this update to tweak hourly temps and dewpoints to
match obs. Low temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than
normal, generally lower 60s. Current forecast does a nice job on
phasing pops out and no changes needed there.
On Friday a low pressure system off the coast of New Jersey and New York will
track northeastward toward Cape Cod. There will be some heavier
rain with this feature well to our southeast, but we could have
some showers across our southeastern zones, mainly southern
Vermont. High temperatures on Friday will generally be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.
Short term /Friday night through Saturday night/...
as of 430 PM EDT Thursday...any lingering precipitation will come to
an end Friday evening. Drier and cooler weather will be the main
story for Friday night through Saturday night as a ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Temperatures will be very near to
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
as of 415 PM EDT Thursday...ridge of surface high pressure slides
east as a broad mid level trough brings clouds and chance for
showers into the north country from the south. Models disagree on
how far north the precipitation will reach, therefore kept probability of precipitation at
chance. The main axis of the aforementioned trough will moves
through the region on Monday, keeping a chance of showers before
exiting east Monday night. This will be followed by ridging and
dry weather through Wednesday night. The next chance for
precipitation will be Thursday into Friday with the approach of
another mid level trough.
Temperatures will start near normal with a warming trend throughout
Aviation /00z Friday through Tuesday/...
through 00z Saturday...VFR conditions this evening will likely
deteriorate with patchy fog development in moist atmosphere and
wet ground from todays showers/thunderstorms. Patchy fog focused
around the 06-12z Friday period. Cloud cover will make locations
of fog development hit or miss, but greatest potential at kmss, kslk
After 12z/13z Friday, expect VFR conditions with few showers
possible at krut and kmpv during the day. Winds will pick up out
of the north at all taf sites at 6-12kts.
Outlook 00z Saturday through Tuesday...
00z Sat - 00z sun...mainly VFR under ridge of high pressure.
Possible MVFR/IFR fog at kslk/kmpv overnight.
00z sun - 00z Tue...chance for showers on Sunday and Monday with
isolated -tsra possible mainly across southern sections.
00z Tue Onward...VFR under high pressure.