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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville Texas
405 PM CDT sun Oct 22 2017

Short term (tonight through Monday night): the cold front is just now
arriving into the bks/hbv areas, with modest northeasterly breezes
in its wake. Precipitation is currently limited to the immediate
front and offshore, but is beginning to be aided by the seabreeze
drifting inland. Shower activity will continue along the front as is
moves southward, reaching near the river right around 5pm. Skies
behind the front are clear, with dry north winds at the surface and
nwy winds aloft, so temperatures will be able to drop considerably
overnight tonight into the upper 50s and low 60s. Monday will be
completely clear, with high pressure in control. Highs will rise
into the 80s, but will be a much drier atmosphere. Another night of
clear skies tomorrow night will good radiational cooling will see
temps fall into the 50 areawide.

Long term (tuesday through sunday): the 500 mb pattern over the
lower 48 state will start with a Sharp Ridge axis over the western
third of the area with deep troffing prevailing over the central
and eastern states. This configuration will continue through tues
and Wed with the western ridge axis breaking down later this week
as another deep trough axis digs into the central portions of the
country from thurs on through the weekend. This will maintain a
steady progression of much cooler and drier Canadian airmasses
pushing into the rgv through next weekend. No significant moisture
return is expected until next weekend and will maintain some pops
mainly for the eastern portions of the rgv ahead of the weekend

Pretty decent agreement shows up with the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS for
temps and pops through next Fri with bigger disagreements showing
up for the weekend mainly for temps with the European model (ecmwf) coming in
cooler versus the GFS numbers. This cooler bias is due to the
European model (ecmwf) wanting to hold the strong 500 mb trough axis over the
Southern Plains states longer than the GFS.

Overall confidence in the forecast wording is above average
through Friday and near average for the weekend.


Marine (now through Monday night): the front is already Half Way
through the coastal waters, outracing the onshore component.
Winds behind the front have been reaching advisory criteria, so
will be pushing the advisory forward to start now, and continue
into tomorrow morning. High pressure will move into the northwest Gulf
tomorrow, bringing lighter winds and allowing seas to relax
through the day.

Tuesday through Friday night...the steady progression of Canadian
airmasses throughout this week will likely maintain near scec/Small Craft Advisory
conditions across the Lower Texas Bay and Gulf waters as the pgf
remains pretty strong. The best marine conditions this week will
be confined to late Wed/early thurs when the pgf appears to be the
weakest ahead of the weekend cold front.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Bayview/Port Isabel 66 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
Brownsville 65 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
Harlingen 63 85 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
McAllen 64 86 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
Rio Grande City 60 88 57 91 / 0 0 0 0
South Padre Island 70 80 69 81 / 0 0 0 0


Bro watches/warnings/advisories...
GM...Small Craft Advisory for winds until 7 am CDT Monday for gmz130-

Small Craft Advisory until 7 am CDT Monday for gmz150-155-170-



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