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000 
FXUS61 KBOX 280207
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Taunton MA
1007 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Damp weather continues Tue and Tue night as low pressure tracks
over or near the region. Although Tue should be milder than 
Monday. High pressure brings dry but chilly weather Wed and Thu.
More unsettled weather is expected late Fri into Sat. High 
pressure builds in Sunday into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
10PM update...
As drier air continues to spill in aloft, noting the widespread
development of fog and low clouds across the region suggesting a
damp and mild night in spite of the drier air trying to spill in
from the N-NW flow behind the exiting frontal wave. Therefore,
generally more of the same for the overnight hours. A mix of
patchy fog/low clouds and temps in the mid to upper 30s. No 
major adjustments otherwise. Will hold on any fog headlines at 
this point as the aforementioned N-NW flow may limit the ability
for fog to form as dwpts gradually hold or lower through the 
overnight hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Tuesday...Over-running with light rain or drizzle. Temps near 
50 for highs. Warm front south of Long Island with plenty of
mixture keeps it cloudy and damp. POPs of likely to 
categorical, but the key here is for light rain which I was able
to get into the grids. 

Not a lot of sunshine anticipated, despite southern New England
getting into the warm sector of a low pressure in southeast
Canada. Max temperatures should be above normal, in the upper
40s and 50s. Could be warmer if clouds and rainfall are delayed
until late in the day. Low risk of a isolated thunderstorm or
two toward the south coast due to elevated instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
No significant changes at this time.

Highlights...

* Showers linger Tuesday night as cold front passes through
* Cooler but dry weather for Wed and Thurs
* Unsettled weather returns Friday into Saturday

Pattern Overview...

12z Model consensus continues to show an active weather pattern
for the period. Split flow aloft will continue through the 
period with a few shortwaves moving through the flow. Partial 
phasing of the two streams will occur across the Great Lakes and
Northeast on Tuesday. This will result in the development of a 
low pressure system east of the region late Tuesday into 
Wednesday. High pressure and upper level ridge will follow 
Thursday into early Friday. The next upper level low/trough 
deamplifies as it moves into the mid/upper ridge axis across the
eastern U.S. A coastal low is forecast to develop and quickly 
move east in the aforementioned region of this phasing. The 
spread has decreased for this timeframe but the still question 
in strengthen and location of this system will determine p-types
and qpf amounts. 

Details...

Tuesday Night...High confidence.  

Weak shortwave will move over the region on Tuesday with surface
low  pressure over Northern New England. Along the cold front, 
guidance develops a secondary low pressure system just south of 
southern New England by Tuesday night. This wave of low pressure
will bring showery weather Tuesday evening into the overnight 
hours. Cannot rule out some isolated thunder with this system as
TT increase above 50 and LI's drop below 0. This is strongest 
in the conservative EC. 

Precip chance will quickly come to an end from west to east
during  the overnight hours as CAA takes a hold of the region. 

Wednesday into Friday...High confidence. 

Trough overhead as upper level low deepens as it moves towards
the  Canadian Maritimes. This puts the region in northwest flow
through the period resulting in dry but breezy conditions. 
Clouds may be stubborn on Wed over the Cape and islands given 
northerly flow across the waters. In fact could have some ocean 
effect rain/snow showers over the outer Cape! Despite cold 
advection, the environment should be well mixed, so max 
temperatures will be close to normal. 

Northwest flow continues on Thursday with an area of high
pressure  building in New England. Anticipate increasing 
sunshine and lighter winds. Dry and seasonable conditions should
persist through Friday with high pressure in control.

Friday night into the weekend...Low confidence. 

Split flow remains over the region with the next southern stream  
wave interacting with the northern stream. Still some model 
spread in this system leading to a low confidence forecast. The 
EC has become more progressive with this approaching coastal low
developing it over 1-95 while the GFS keeps the system 
suppressed. The UKMET is more in between the two systems, but 
the GEFS and EPS continue to show the system south of SNE. 
Overall a chilly rain with potential for wet snow/sleet at times
on the northern portion of the precip shield. All guidance 
suggest system should be or moving offshore by Sunday, thus 
drying trend possible second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...High confidence.

Tonight...IFR to LIFR cigs remain. Fog develops/remains 
overnight. Light winds.

Tuesday...IFR conditions likely in areas of rain and fog. Chance
for LIFR.

KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence. IFR to LIFR through much of the
period.

KBDL TAF...Moderate Confidence. IFR to LIFR through much of the
period.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday into Thursday...High confidence. Gusty N/W winds 
Wednesday with VFR conditions into Thursday. 

Friday...Moderate confidence.  VFR and dry to start but likely 
lowering to MVFR or possibly IFR Fri night in rain/wintry precip.

Saturday...Moderate confidence. MVFR or possibly lower in rain/wintry mix.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Short Term /through Tuesday/...Moderate confidence. 

Rough seas across the eastern outer coastal waters are more 
likely than the southern outer waters. Continued the Small Craft
Advisories for those waters. A few gusts to 25 kt are also 
possible this evening. 

Tonight...A weak frontal boundary sweeps the waters, with light
west winds developing. This will allow seas to subside and Small 
Craft Advisories to conclude. 

Tuesday...Light south winds with frontal boundary north of the 
region. Vsby reduced at times in rain and fog.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Tuesday night...Moderate confidence. winds becoming northeast late 
Tue night as front slips south and wave of low pres tracks along the 
front south of New England. Vsby reduced at times in rain and fog.

Wednesday into Thursday...High confidence. Gusty north winds near 
Wednesday into early Thu then diminishing as high pressure builds 
into the area later Thu. 

Friday...High confidence. Quiet weather with high pressure over the 
area early Fri. However increasing east-southeast winds Fri night as 
low pres approaches from the west. Also vsby lowering in rain and 
fog Fri night.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/Dunten
NEAR TERM...Doody

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